Alza de la actividad de opciones bajistas: ¿bajo valorado el mercado de acciones de Adobe?

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) has long been a bellwether for innovation in the creative software sector, but recent market dynamics have sparked a compelling debate: Is the stock undervalued despite a surge in bearish options activity? This analysis, rooted in contrarian value investing principles and options sentiment data, argues that Adobe's fundamentals-bolstered by AI integration, robust earnings growth, and improving gross margins-suggest a compelling buying opportunity, even as the options market reflects short-term pessimism.

Bearish Options Activity: A Contrarian Signal?

The options market for Adobe has shown a pronounced bearish tilt in December 2025. Data from options analytics platforms reveals a put/call volume ratio of 1.44, indicating that traders are purchasing puts at a significantly higher rate than calls. This contrasts with the open interest put/call ratio of 0.6623, which, while still bearish, suggests less extreme positioning. Notably, 45% of unusual options trades in December 2025 were bearish, with large put trades targeting price ranges between $320 and $450.

However, this bearish sentiment appears to diverge from broader market behavior. Short interest in Adobe has declined by 5.47%, signaling a reduction in pessimism among traditional short sellers. Meanwhile, institutional investors have shifted net trade sentiment from $857,400 below parity to $25.69 million above parity in late December 2025, reflecting growing optimism. These mixed signals highlight a tug-of-war between near-term caution and long-term confidence.

Strong Fundamentals: AI-Driven Growth and Margin Expansion

Adobe's Q4 2025 earnings report, released on December 10, 2025, underscored its strategic pivot toward AI-driven monetization. Revenue surged to $6.19 billion, exceeding estimates by 1.4% and marking a 10.5% year-on-year growth. Non-GAAP earnings per share hit $5.50, outpacing expectations by 1.9%. This performance was fueled by tripling generative credit usage in Creative Cloud and Firefly platforms, alongside a 35% year-on-year increase in monthly active users for freemium offerings.

Gross margins also improved, with operating margins rising to 36.5% from 34.9% in the prior year. Adobe's pending $1.9 billion acquisition of SEMrush further signals its ambition to dominate digital marketing, while AI-powered tools like Firefly Foundry and GenStudio are driving enterprise adoption. Analysts project $6.28 billion in Q1 2026 revenue and an adjusted EPS of $23.40 for fiscal 2026, aligning with the company's growth trajectory.

Analyst Price Targets: A Wide Gap Between Valuation and Reality

Despite these fundamentals, Adobe's stock price languishes at $343, well below the $447 analyst price target and a $383.06 fair value estimate. This discrepancy is striking, especially given that Adobe's 52-week high of $494 suggests the market has yet to fully price in its AI-driven potential.

Analysts remain divided. Barclays raised its target to $465 (Overweight rating), citing Adobe's product momentum, while TD Cowen cut its target to $420, citing concerns over decelerating revenue growth. The consensus target of $450.32 implies a 28% upside from current levels. Meanwhile, the options market's implied volatility of 50.51% for December 2025 contracts suggests a 68% probability of the stock closing between $283.99 and $362.63, a range that excludes the analyst consensus.

Contrarian Case for Value Investing

The widening gap between Adobe's fundamentals and its stock price creates a classic contrarian opportunity. Bearish options activity, while notable, often reflects short-term volatility rather than long-term value. For instance, Adobe's stock historically dips by -3.5% on the first day of earnings announcements, yet its post-earnings rebound potential remains strong. The recent stabilization in price, combined with a 5.47% decline in short interest, suggests that pessimism may already be priced in.

Moreover, Adobe's AI integration is a durable competitive advantage. The tripling of generative credit usage and the conversion of freemium users to paid subscribers through tiered pricing models indicate scalable growth. These factors, coupled with a 36.5% operating margin, position Adobe to outperform in a sector where margins are under pressure.

Conclusion: A Stock Poised for Rebalancing

Adobe's bearish options activity reflects near-term uncertainty, but its fundamentals tell a different story. With AI-driven user growth, margin expansion, and a compelling analyst price target, the stock appears undervalued relative to its long-term potential. For contrarian investors, the current discount-amid a market that often overreacts to short-term volatility-presents a compelling entry point. As Adobe's Q1 2026 guidance and AI monetization strategies unfold, the gap between sentiment and valuation may soon close.