Adobe: Un compuendor mal comprendido, con posibilidades de ser reevaluado en el año 2026.

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) has long been a poster child for the power of recurring revenue models in the software-as-a-service (SaaS) industry. Yet, despite its dominant position in digital creativity and enterprise solutions, the stock has languished amid investor fears of AI-driven disruption. This undervaluation, however, may represent a compelling opportunity for those who recognize Adobe's unique ability to balance innovation, profitability, and sustainable growth. With a forward P/E ratio of 14.32 and a PEG ratio of 0.59, Adobe trades at a discount to its SaaS peers while maintaining a Rule of 40 score of 49.47%-well above the industry benchmark. This analysis argues that Adobe's AI-first strategy, coupled with its disciplined financials, positions it for a re-rating in 2026.

Valuation Metrics: A Discounted Compounder

Adobe's valuation multiples tell a story of mispricing. Its trailing P/E ratio of 20.89 and forward P/E of 14.32 are significantly lower than the typical 28x–100x range seen among high-growth SaaS companies like Salesforce and Shopify. The PEG ratio of 0.59 further underscores this disconnect, as it implies the market is underestimating Adobe's earnings growth potential. For context, SaaS companies with revenue multiples of 5.3x–7.0x often trade at higher P/E ratios, given their growth profiles. Adobe, by contrast, generates $23.8 billion in annual revenue while maintaining a net revenue retention (NRR) rate that outpaces most of its peers.

This undervaluation is puzzling for a company with such a robust business model. Adobe's transition to the Creative Cloud subscription model has created a fortress-like recurring revenue stream, with 10.2% ARR growth projected for 2026. Meanwhile, its operating margins remain in the mid-30s, a rarity in the SaaS sector where many firms sacrifice profitability for growth.

AI-Driven Growth: Monetizing the Next Frontier

Adobe's AI strategy is not just defensive-it's a catalyst for compounding growth. The company has embedded generative AI into its core products, from Photoshop to Acrobat, enabling users to create and edit content via natural language prompts. This integration has driven a 15% year-over-year increase in monthly active users, with generative usage surging 3x quarter-over-quarter.

Monetization is equally innovative. Adobe is leveraging tiered pricing and generative credits to convert AI adoption into revenue. For instance, users who exceed free credit limits are nudged toward premium plans, which offer higher-resolution outputs and advanced features. The Firefly Foundry initiative further expands this model by offering enterprise clients brand-specific AI training and content generation services. Meanwhile, the Semrush acquisition has bolstered Adobe's digital marketing capabilities, creating a flywheel effect between AI-driven tools and enterprise automation.

Financial Projections: Growth Without Sacrifice

Adobe's 2026 guidance reinforces its status as a rare "Rule of 40" winner. The company projects revenue of $25.9–26.1 billion, a 9.2% increase from 2025, alongside non-GAAP EPS of $23.30–23.50. These figures imply a 11.7% earnings growth rate, which, when combined with Adobe's 39% EBITDA margin, results in a Rule of 40 score of 49.47%-a full 36 percentage points above the 13% industry average for the SaaS Capital Index (SCI) universe.

This balance between growth and profitability is critical. While many SaaS firms trade at elevated multiples on the promise of future growth, Adobe's disciplined approach ensures that its valuation is anchored in reality. Its 10.2% ARR growth for 2026 may seem modest compared to the 20%+ rates of high-growth startups, but it's achieved without sacrificing margins-a feat that justifies a premium valuation.

Peer Comparisons: A Discounted Premium

Adobe's valuation appears even more compelling when compared to its SaaS peers. Shopify, for example, trades at a forward P/E of over 100x, despite a decelerating growth rate and a recent leadership change. Salesforce, which commands a 6–10x ARR multiple, has struggled to maintain its dominance in the CRM space. Meanwhile, Adobe's 15x revenue multiple reflects a more conservative but sustainable path.

This disparity highlights a key insight: Adobe is being valued like a mid-tier SaaS company despite operating at the top of its category. Its market leadership in digital creativity, coupled with its AI-driven expansion into enterprise solutions, should command a higher multiple. The current discount is a function of short-term fears around AI disruption, not a reflection of Adobe's long-term potential.

Conclusion: A Re-rating Awaits

Adobe's combination of a discounted valuation, AI-driven growth, and a Rule of 40 score that dwarfs industry benchmarks makes it a standout in the SaaS sector. While the market fixates on near-term risks, Adobe is quietly building a moat around its AI-powered platforms. As generative AI adoption accelerates and enterprise demand for automation grows, Adobe's disciplined approach to monetization and margin preservation will likely drive a re-rating in 2026. For investors seeking a compounder with a margin of safety, Adobe offers an attractive case study in undervaluation amid transformation.