Adobe (ADBE) Options Signal Bullish Momentum: Key Strike Levels and Trade Setups for Dec 12–19 Expirations

• Adobe shares surged 3.3% today after Q4 earnings, trading at $354.62 (intraday high: $356.97)
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $360–$400 strikes, with a put/call ratio of 0.87 (bullish bias)
• Analysts mixed on margins but bullish on AI-driven growth, with UBS maintaining a $375 price target

Here’s the core insight: Adobe’s options market is pricing in a strong near-term upside bias, supported by earnings momentum and AI tailwinds—but watch for margin pressures that could cap gains.What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

Let’s start with the numbers: this Friday’s options chain shows 2,723 open interest at the $360 call and 2,827 at the $300 put. Next Friday’s data is even more telling—11,454 open interest at the $400 call (vs. 5,884 puts at $300). That’s not just noise; it’s a crowd betting Adobe will test new highs. The put/call ratio of 0.87 (calls > puts) reinforces this, suggesting investors are hedging downside risk while leaning into the rally.

But don’t ignore the puts. Heavy open interest at $300–$310 strikes means some traders are bracing for a pullback. Why? The 200-day moving average (368.09) is acting as resistance, and if Adobe can’t break above it, the $348–$351 range (200D support) becomes critical. The lack of block trades is neutral—no whales moving the needle here.

How Earnings and AI News Fuel the Narrative

Adobe’s Q4 beat and AI-driven revenue growth (34% of recurring revenue now) are fueling optimism. The Semrush acquisition adds marketing data firepower, which analysts like Stifel and DA Davidson see as a catalyst. But here’s the catch: UBS and Morgan Stanley cut price targets due to margin concerns from AI compute costs. That’s why the options market isn’t all-in on $450+ strikes—investors are hedging between growth bets and profit warnings.

Actionable Trade Setups for Today

For options traders, the most compelling plays are:

• This Friday (Dec 12): Buy ADBE20251212C360 if the stock holds above $354.62. Target: $365–$370 (breaks through key call OI clusters). Stop-loss: below $348.49.
• Next Friday (Dec 19): Buy ADBE20251219C400 if Adobe closes above $356.97 today. This leverages the massive 11,454 OI at $400 and aligns with UBS’s $375 target. Stop-loss: below $333.79 (today’s low).

For stock traders, consider:

• Entry: $354.62 (current price) with a target at $375 (UBS’s PT) if the 200D line holds.
• Alternative: Wait for a pullback to $348.49 (200D support) before buying, with a stop below $333.79.

Volatility on the Horizon

Adobe’s story is a tug-of-war between AI optimism and margin realism. The next two weeks will test whether the stock can sustain its rally above the 200-day line while integrating Semrush’s data tools. If Adobe closes above $368.09 by Dec 19, the $375–$400 range becomes a new battleground. But if it falters, the $322–$323 support (30D level) could force a reevaluation of the AI growth narrative.

Bottom line: This is a high-conviction trade for those comfortable with near-term volatility. The options market is pricing in a 10–15% move by Dec 19—so pick your strike, set your stops, and let the data guide your exit.