Adobe (ADBE) Options Signal Bullish Breakout Potential: Key Strike Levels and Strategic Entry Points for Traders

• Adobe’s options market shows heavy call open interest at $360–$365 strikes ahead of Friday’s expiry, suggesting a short-term price target.
• The stock trades near 30D support at $347, with RSI hovering near neutral territory and MACD hinting at a potential bullish crossover.
• Recent AI-driven product launches and raised earnings guidance have institutional investors piling in, but the 200D MA at $386 remains a looming headwind.

Here’s the thing: Adobe’s options activity and technicals are painting a mixed but actionable picture. While the stock sits in a short-term bullish trend, the long-term bearish 200D MA and heavy put open interest at $320–$330 suggest caution. But the recent AI-driven news flow and raised guidance could fuel a breakout—if the price holds above key support.

Bullish Pressure at $360–$365, But Puts Signal Downside Risk

Let’s start with the options data. For Friday’s expiry, the top OTM calls are clustered at $360 (OI: 1,916), $365 (OI: 1,879), and $362.5 (OI: 864). That’s not random—it’s a vote of confidence from options traders who expect ADBE to test these levels before expiration. The histogram on the MACD is positive, and the RSI isn’t overbought, so there’s room for a rally if the stock breaks above $353.61 (today’s high).

But don’t ignore the puts. The top OTM puts at $320 (OI: 2,096) and $330 (OI: 1,384) suggest a bearish tail risk. If the stock dips below $348.71 (intraday low), those puts could accelerate the slide. The put/call ratio for open interest is 0.8, which is bearish, but the lack of block trades means no whale-sized bets are skewing the data.

AI News and Earnings Beats Fuel Optimism, But Valuation Concerns Linger

Adobe’s recent headlines are a goldmine for bulls. The company raised its FY25 ARR growth target to 11.3%, launched a free iPhone Premiere app, and unveiled its AI Foundry with clients like Disney and Home Depot. These moves aren’t just PR—they’re strategic plays to lock in enterprise clients and casual creators alike. Jim Cramer even gave CEO Shantanu Narayen a shoutout on Mad Money, calling him a "great executive."

But here’s the catch: ADBE’s stock is still down 21% year-to-date, and the 200D MA at $386 looms like a ghost. The recent Q3 earnings beat ($5.31 EPS vs. $5.18) and raised guidance are positive, but the market might be pricing in a correction. The Bollinger Bands show the stock is trading near the middle band, which isn’t a strong signal either way—so it’s all about execution now.

Trade Ideas: Calls at $360, Puts at $330, and a Stock Buy Near $347

If you’re bullish, the $360 call (expiring Friday) or $370 call (expiring next Friday) are your best bets. The $360 strike has the highest open interest, and a break above $353.61 could trigger a rally toward that level. For next Friday, the $370 call (OI: 1,809) is a safer play if the stock consolidates. Both options offer leverage if Adobe’s AI-driven narrative gains traction.

Bearish traders might eye the $330 put (expiring Friday) as a hedge. If the stock dips below $348.71, those puts could pay off. But given the recent institutional buying (over $240M in new investments), I’d only use puts as a short-term insurance policy.

For stock buyers, consider entry near $347 (30D support) if the price holds above $348.71. A breakout above $353.61 could target $365, where the heavy call open interest is. Stop-loss below $346.21 (middle Bollinger Band) would protect against a deeper pullback.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Technical Headwinds

Adobe’s story is a classic case of "growth at a discount." The AI Foundry and Creative Cloud innovations are real, but the stock’s long-term bearish trend (200D MA at $386) means patience is key. The options data suggests a short-term rally is possible, but don’t ignore the puts at $320–$330—they’re a reminder that macroeconomic uncertainty could derail the AI hype train.

Bottom line: This is a high-conviction trade for those who believe Adobe’s AI-driven transformation will outpace its technical headwinds. If the stock holds above $347 and breaks $353.61, the $360–$365 calls could deliver strong returns. But if it slips below $346.21, the puts at $330 might save your skin. Either way, the next two weeks will tell a lot about Adobe’s path forward.