Adobe (ADBE) Options Signal Bullish Bias at $400 Calls Amid Bearish Open Interest Imbalance – Here’s How to Position for Volatility

• Adobe (ADBE) reports Q3 2025 earnings beat but trades 21% below year-ago levels amid AI monetization skepticism.
• Options data shows 0.87 put/call open interest imbalance, with heavy call OI at $400 and put OI at $345 strikes.
• Technical indicators suggest short-term bearish momentum, but AI-driven ARR growth hints at potential re-rating catalysts.

Adobe’s stock price currently sits at $355.31, up 0.32% from its previous close, but remains in a long-term bearish trend. The options market, however, tells a more nuanced story: while bearish sentiment dominates through elevated put open interest, aggressive call buying at extreme strike levels suggests positioning for a potential breakout. This divergence between technicals and options activity creates a high-conviction trade setup for both directional and volatility-based strategies.

Bullish Call Accumulation vs. Bearish Put Dominance: A Tale of Two Striking Levels

The options chain reveals a stark contrast between call and put positioning. For Friday expiration, the $400 call (OI: 1,681) and $372.5 call (OI: 1,661) dominate, with 80% of total call open interest concentrated above $370. Meanwhile, put open interest peaks at the $345 strike (OI: 1,867), reflecting defensive positioning below the 200D moving average ($397.85). This distribution implies two key dynamics:

• Bullish Imbalance: Aggressive call buying at $400 suggests institutional players are pricing in a 12.5% upside move, potentially driven by optimism around Adobe’s AI-driven ARR growth ($5.4B) and Q4 guidance.
• Bearish Floor: The $345 put OI cluster aligns with the 200D support range ($346.81–$351.19), indicating a liquidity wall to prevent further downside. However, the 0.87 put/call ratio (calls: 234,479; puts: 204,188) suggests bearish sentiment remains dominant.

Notably, no block trades have been reported, suggesting this positioning is driven by retail and institutional options activity rather than large-scale institutional bets. The absence of large block trades also reduces the risk of sudden liquidity shocks.

Earnings Optimism vs. Growth Skepticism: How News Shapes the Narrative

Adobe’s Q3 2025 results—$5.99B revenue (beating estimates) and $5.31 EPS—highlight strong core performance. CEO Shantanu Narayen’s emphasis on AI-influenced ARR surpassing $5B underscores progress in monetizing AI tools. Yet, the stock’s 21% YTD decline and analyst downgrades reveal a disconnect between fundamentals and market sentiment. This tension is reflected in the options data:

• Short-Term Optimism: The $400 call OI suggests traders are pricing in a post-earnings rally, particularly if Adobe’s AI monetization metrics continue to outperform.
• Long-Term Cautiousness: Analyst skepticism about sustainable growth and the stock’s underperformance relative to the Nasdaq (despite strong results) reinforce bearish positioning via put buying.

Investor perception is further complicated by Adobe’s 11.3% annualized growth forecast, which, while solid, lags behind the 15–20% growth rates seen in high-growth tech peers. This creates a “buy the dip” narrative for bulls but reinforces caution for bears.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Protection

For traders, the key opportunities lie in leveraging the options imbalance and technical levels:

• Bullish Play: Buy the $400 call (Friday expiration) if ADBE breaks above its upper Bollinger Band ($368.17). This strike offers 12.5% upside potential with defined risk, as the stock must close above $368.17 to justify the premium paid. A stop-loss below $352.78 (intraday low) would limit downside.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy the $345 put (Friday expiration) to protect against a breakdown below the 200D support range. With the stock currently $10.82 above this level, the put offers downside protection if the 30D support ($353.11–$353.57) fails.
• Stock Positioning: Consider entering long positions near $353.11–$353.57 (30D support) with a target at $368.17 (upper Bollinger Band). Alternatively, short the stock if it breaks below $340.77 (lower Bollinger Band), targeting $335.00 (next support level).

Volatility on the Horizon: Navigating Adobe’s Divergent Signals

Adobe’s stock sits at a crossroads: strong earnings and AI progress clash with bearish technicals and cautious options positioning. The $400 call OI suggests a potential catalyst-driven rally, while the $345 put OI highlights a critical support level. Traders should monitor the stock’s interaction with the 30D ($355.15) and 100D ($375.06) moving averages in the coming weeks. A sustained close above $375.06 could trigger a re-rating, while a breakdown below $340.77 would validate the bearish case. With Q4 guidance already priced in, the next 30 days will be pivotal in determining whether Adobe’s AI-driven optimism can overcome its long-term underperformance.