AdEx/Bitcoin Market Overview – 2025-11-07

Summary
• ADXBTC formed a bullish breakout above 1.27e-06.
• Volume spiked in early morning hours, confirming the move.
• RSI and MACD suggest rising momentum but not overbought.

The ADXBTC pair opened at 1.24e-06 (12:00 ET − 1) and reached a high of 1.31e-06, with a low of 1.24e-06, closing at 1.29e-06 as of 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 160,608.0, while notional turnover remained relatively modest due to the low price of ADX. The pair showed signs of consolidation followed by a clear breakout, supported by increased trading activity.

Structure & Formations

ADXBTC demonstrated a clear bullish reversal pattern, with a breakout above the key resistance level of 1.27e-06. This was confirmed by a strong candle at 00:15 ET, which engulfed the previous bearish setup. A consolidation phase followed, with price oscillating within a tight range before a final push higher in early morning hours. The formation appears to suggest a short-term bullish bias, with 1.3e-06 now acting as a potential new support level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in favor of bulls, supporting the upward move. The 20SMA currently sits at 1.275e-06, while the 50SMA is at 1.268e-06, suggesting a possible continuation of the upward bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 MA alignment appears neutral, with price hovering just above the 200SMA, indicating a potential shift in trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive and crossed above the signal line, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. RSI is currently at 52, indicating moderate strength without reaching overbought territory. The divergence between volume and RSI is negligible, suggesting that the move is likely to continue unless overbought conditions develop in the next 24–48 hours.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded within a narrow range during the consolidation phase, indicating a contraction in volatility. However, the recent breakout saw ADXBTC move above the upper Bollinger Band, confirming a breakout in a low-volatility environment. This suggests a potential continuation of the trend, with traders watching for a retest of the breakout level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply during the early morning hours (00:15–02:00 ET), confirming the bullish breakout. The largest volume spike occurred at 00:15 ET, with 7,380 ADX traded. Notional turnover followed the same trend, with no significant divergence observed between price and volume. This supports the idea that the breakout was driven by genuine buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent swing from 1.24e-06 to 1.31e-06 places 1.27e-06 at the 38.2% retracement level and 1.26e-06 at the 61.8% level. The price has already broken above the 38.2% level, suggesting a potential extension of the bullish move toward the 1.33e-06 target. If price retraces below 1.27e-06, the 1.26e-06 level will be the key support to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy would involve identifying and acting on the Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern in ADXBTC, as it historically precedes meaningful upward moves. Given the recent formation of such a pattern on 2025-11-07, a hypothetical entry could be placed on confirmation of the pattern (e.g., close of the engulfing candle), with a stop-loss below the recent swing low and a target aligned with Fibonacci levels or the upper Bollinger Band. However, due to the unavailability of historical ADXBTC data for pattern identification in this case, a direct backtest remains limited without the correct symbol formatting or access to a supported dataset.