Should You Add MongoDB Stock to Your Portfolio Ahead of Q4 Earnings?
MongoDB MDB is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on March 2.
For the fiscal fourth quarter, MDBMDB-- anticipates revenues between $665 million and $670 million, up 21.7% year over year at the midpoint.
Non-GAAP earnings are expected in the range of $1.44-$1.48 per share, up 14.1% year over year at the midpoint. Non-GAAP operating income is expected in the band of $139-$143 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $668.19 million, suggesting a 21.84% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.47 per share, indicating an increase of 14.84% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
MDB’s Earnings Surprise History
The company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in all the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 69.3%.
Let's see how things have shaped up for the upcoming announcement.
Earnings Whispers for MDB
Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for MongoDBMDB-- this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
MDB has an Earnings ESP of +0.05% and carries a Zacks Rank #1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Shaping MDB’s Q4 Results
MongoDB is expected to have entered the fiscal fourth quarter with strong tailwinds, having raised its revenue and operating income guidance following a fiscal third-quarter beat, driven by accelerating Atlas growth and broad-based enterprise demand. Atlas, the company's fully managed multi-cloud database platform, is expected to have remained the central growth driver, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate expecting Atlas revenues to rise 27.24% on an annual basis.
Enterprise demand is expected to have remained a key tailwind, with large customers across financial services, healthcare and manufacturing continuing to deepen their reliance on Atlas for mission-critical workloads. The integration of embedding and reranking models through Voyage AI directly into Atlas is expected to have driven increased enterprise customer engagement, as enterprises have been seeking to move AI workloads from pilot into production, supporting Atlas consumption growth during the quarter. The consensus mark for customers with revenues over $100K is pegged at 2,786 customers, up 16.3% year over year.
MDB's expanding partner ecosystem is also expected to have been a meaningful growth enabler during the fiscal fourth quarter. Strategic partnerships with Microsoft MSFT across AI development and governance use cases are expected to have deepened MDB's footprint within Azure's enterprise customer base during the period. Collaboration with Amazon AMZN through AWS marketplace integrations is expected to have broadened Atlas reach across cloud-native workloads, while Snowflake SNOW integrations are expected to have supported data pipeline use cases for joint customers. Together, Microsoft, Amazon and Snowflake are expected to have contributed to faster deal velocity and more efficient customer acquisition for MDB during the quarter.
Atlas Vector Search is expected to have seen growing traction as enterprises have been investing in retrieval-augmented generation architectures. The convergence of operational data, vector search and Voyage AI embeddings within a single unified platform has been a key differentiation point, removing the need for customers to manage multiple disparate tools. Broad-based strength in EMEA and several large multiyear non-Atlas deal closures are also expected to have contributed to overall consumption growth during the period.
MDB Price Performance & Stock Valuation
MongoDB shares have surged 43.1% over the trailing six months, outperforming the Zacks Internet-Software industry’s decline of 23.8% and the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's return of 9.2%. The outperformance has been underpinned by accelerating Atlas growth, consistent earnings beats, and MDB's growing relevance as enterprises have been increasingly prioritising flexible and AI-ready database infrastructure.
MDB’s 6-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MDB stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Sales multiple of 8.56 compared to the industry average of 3.74, a premium that has been supported by Atlas' consistent above-market growth, Voyage AI's differentiated retrieval capabilities and strategic partnerships with Microsoft, Amazon and Snowflake that have been broadening MDB's enterprise reach and distribution scale.
MDB’s Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Conclusion
MongoDB presents a compelling opportunity ahead of its fiscal fourth-quarter results, with Atlas delivering consistent above-market growth, Voyage AI strengthening its competitive moat and a rich partner ecosystem spanning Microsoft, Amazon and Snowflake, broadening its enterprise reach. With accelerating consumption trends and deepening enterprise relationships across regulated industries, investors would do well to consider adding MDB to their portfolios before the market fully recognizes MongoDB's transformative potential as a foundational data platform of the AI era.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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