Adaptive Biotechnologies Soars 15% on Record Revenue Surge and ClonoSEQ Momentum

Summary
• Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) surges 15.2% intraday to $18.16, driven by Q4 2025 revenue growth of 51% to $72M.
• ClonoSEQ test volume jumps 43% to 30,000 units in Q4, with full-year 2025 volume up 39% to 105,600 tests.
• Cash reserves hit $227M as of December 31, 2025, signaling strong liquidity despite a -31.5% net margin.

Adaptive Biotechnologies’ stock is trading at its highest level since early 2025, fueled by robust revenue growth and clonoSEQ adoption. The biotech’s MRD segment delivered $62M in Q4 revenue, a 54% year-over-year increase, while full-year MRD revenue grew 46%. With clonoSEQ test volume accelerating and cash reserves intact, investors are re-evaluating the stock’s long-term potential.

ClonoSEQ's 43% Test Volume Surge Drives Adaptive's Intraday Rally
Adaptive Biotechnologies’ 15.2% intraday rally stems from its Q4 2025 preliminary results, which revealed a 51% year-over-year revenue increase to $72 million and a 43% surge in clonoSEQ test volume to 30,000 units. The MRD segment, which accounts for 86% of total revenue, grew 54% in Q4 and 46% for the full year. Management highlighted clonoSEQ’s accelerating adoption, with 105,600 tests delivered in 2025, up 39% from 2024. These metrics, coupled with $227 million in cash reserves, have reignited investor confidence in the company’s ability to scale its MRD business and sustain profitability.

Biotech Sector Mixed as Adaptive Outpaces Peers
While Adaptive Biotechnologies surged 15.2%, the broader biotech sector showed mixed performance. Amgen (AMGN), the sector’s leader, declined 0.3% intraday, reflecting cautious sentiment amid regulatory scrutiny of its pipeline. Adaptive’s rally, however, was fueled by its MRD business’s outsized growth, contrasting with peers focused on R&D-driven models. The biotech sector’s 2026 outlook remains fragmented, with investors prioritizing revenue-generating assets like Adaptive’s clonoSEQ over high-risk, high-reward therapeutics.

Options Playbook: Leverage ADPT20260116C17.5 and ADPT20260116P17.5 for Volatility-Driven Gains
• RSI-14: 41.51 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.102 (bearish), Signal Line: -0.040 (neutral), Histogram: -0.061 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $17.33, Middle $16.28, Lower $15.23 (price near upper band)
• 200D MA: $12.58 (far below current price)

Adaptive’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition with RSI at 41.51, but the stock remains above its 200D MA and Bollinger Bands. A breakout above $18.50 (intraday high) could trigger a test of the 52W high of $20.76. For options, focus on the January 16, 2026, expiration cycle:

ADPT20260116C17.5
• Call Option, Strike: $17.50, Expiry: 2026-01-16
• IV: 73.17% (moderate), Leverage: 17.36%, Delta: 0.70, Theta: -0.152, Gamma: 0.222, Turnover: 11,943
• IV indicates moderate volatility, Delta suggests strong directional bias, Gamma implies sensitivity to price swings.
• This call option offers a 81.03% price change ratio, ideal for capitalizing on a potential $18.50 breakout. A 5% upside to $19.06 would yield a payoff of $1.56 per contract.

ADPT20260116P17.5
• Put Option, Strike: $17.50, Expiry: 2026-01-16
• IV: 98.07% (elevated), Leverage: 36.46%, Delta: -0.338, Theta: -0.021, Gamma: 0.175, Turnover: 300
• IV reflects heightened volatility, Delta suggests moderate bearish exposure, Gamma indicates responsiveness to price dips.
• This put option, with a -56.52% price change ratio, is a hedge against a pullback to the $17.32 intraday low. A 5% downside to $17.25 would yield a $0.25 payoff.

Action: Aggressive bulls should buy ADPT20260116C17.5 into a breakout above $18.50. Conservative traders may short ADPT20260116P17.5 if the stock consolidates below $17.50.

Backtest Adaptive Stock Performance
The ADPT index experienced a 15% intraday surge on January 15, 2026, which was followed by varying short-to-medium-term performance. Backtesting reveals a 47.10% win rate for three days, a 50.75% win rate for ten days, and a 58.92% win rate for thirty days following the event. The average returns over these periods were -0.02% for three days, 1.03% for ten days, and 3.64% for thirty days, with a maximum return of 7.37% observed on day 59 after the event.

Position for a Breakout or Breakdown: ADPT’s 52W High Looms
Adaptive Biotechnologies’ 15.2% rally is a testament to its MRD business’s scalability and clonoSEQ’s market traction. While the stock remains below its 52W high of $20.76, the technicals and fundamentals align for a potential breakout. Watch for a sustained close above $18.50 to validate bullish momentum. Conversely, a breakdown below $17.32 (intraday low) could trigger a retest of the $16.28 200D MA. Sector leader Amgen (AMGN) declined 0.3% intraday, underscoring the sector’s mixed sentiment. Investors should prioritize ADPT20260116C17.5 for upside potential and ADPT20260116P17.5 for downside protection. Act now: Buy the call if $18.50 breaks, or short the put if $17.50 holds.