Adaptive Biotechnologies Soars 13.23% on Record Revenue Surge and MRD Momentum

Summary
• Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) surges 13.23% intraday to $17.845, driven by Q4 revenue of $72M (51% YoY) and MRD segment growth of 54%
• ClonoSEQ test volume jumps 43% to 30K in Q4 2025, with full-year delivery of 105.6K tests (39% YoY)
• Cash reserves hit $227M as of Dec 31, 2025, with full-year 2025 revenue of $277M (55% YoY)

Adaptive Biotechnologies’ stock is trading at record highs following a blockbuster Q4 revenue report that smashed estimates. The biotech’s MRD segment, led by clonoSEQ, drove 86% of total revenue, signaling robust adoption in oncology diagnostics. With cash reserves and test volume metrics pointing to durable momentum, investors are re-evaluating the stock’s technical and fundamental catalysts.

Q4 Revenue and MRD Growth Ignite Investor Optimism
Adaptive Biotechnologies’ 13.23% intraday surge stems from a Q4 revenue report that exceeded analyst expectations by 21.2%. The MRD segment, which accounts for 86% of total revenue, delivered $62M in Q4 2025, a 54% YoY increase. ClonoSEQ test volume surged 43% to 30,000 tests in Q4, with full-year 2025 delivery reaching 105,600 tests (39% YoY). The company’s cash reserves of $227M as of Dec 31, 2025, and full-year 2025 revenue of $277M (55% YoY) further validate its commercial scalability. These metrics, combined with the upcoming February 2026 earnings call, have triggered a re-rating of ADPT’s valuation.

Options and Technicals Signal High-Volatility Playbook
• RSI-14: 41.51 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.102 (bearish), Signal Line: -0.040 (neutral), Histogram: -0.061 (divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $17.33 (near current price), Middle $16.28, Lower $15.23
• 200D MA: $12.58 (far below current price)
• Support/Resistance: 30D $16.64–$16.74, 200D $10.37–$10.65

ADPT’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish trend but long-term bullish setup. The stock is trading near the upper Bollinger Band, with RSI indicating oversold conditions. The 200D MA is a distant $12.58, suggesting a strong break above $18.50 (intraday high) could trigger a retest of the 52W high of $20.76. The options chain reveals two high-leverage contracts with favorable risk-reward profiles:

• ADPT20260116C17.5
- Strike: $17.50, Expiration: 2026-01-16
- IV Ratio: 90.65% (high volatility), Leverage: 19.76% (aggressive), Delta: 0.582 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.1527 (rapid time decay), Gamma: 0.207 (high sensitivity to price moves), Turnover: 10,358 (liquid)
- Payoff: At 5% upside (target $18.74), payoff = max(0, $18.74 - $17.50) = $1.24/share. With leverage of 19.76%, this contract offers 23.7% return on a $1.24 gain.
- Why it stands out: High IV and leverage make this a speculative play for a short-term breakout before the 2026-01-16 expiration.

• ADPT20260220C17.5
- Strike: $17.50, Expiration: 2026-02-20
- IV Ratio: 82.20% (moderate volatility), Leverage: 8.51% (balanced), Delta: 0.584 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.0323 (moderate time decay), Gamma: 0.0806 (moderate sensitivity), Turnover: 2,300 (liquid)
- Payoff: At 5% upside (target $18.74), payoff = max(0, $18.74 - $17.50) = $1.24/share. With leverage of 8.51%, this contract offers 10.6% return on a $1.24 gain.
- Why it stands out: Offers a balanced risk-reward profile with moderate IV and leverage, ideal for holding through the February 2026 earnings call.

Trading Setup: Aggressive bulls may consider ADPT20260116C17.5 for a short-term breakout above $18.50, while ADPT20260220C17.5 provides a safer, mid-term play if the stock consolidates near $17.50. Watch for a break above $18.50 to trigger a retest of the 52W high.

Backtest Adaptive Stock Performance
The ADPT index experienced a notable intraday increase of 13% in 2022, but its overall performance after this surge has been mixed. While the 3-day win rate is 47.20%, indicating a moderate short-term gain, the 10-day win rate is lower at 50.86% and the 30-day win rate is 59.27%, suggesting that longer-term gains are more consistent. The maximum return during the backtest period was 7.22%, which occurred on day 59, further emphasizing the importance of a longer-term perspective for maximizing gains.

Breakout or Correction? ADPT’s Path to $20.76
Adaptive Biotechnologies’ 13.23% surge is underpinned by robust MRD growth and clonoSEQ adoption, but technicals suggest a volatile near-term path. The stock is trading near its intraday high of $18.50, with RSI in oversold territory and Bollinger Bands tightening. A break above $18.50 could trigger a retest of the 52W high of $20.76, while a pullback to the 30D support of $16.64 may test conviction. Investors should monitor the February 2026 earnings call for guidance on full-year MRD growth. Sector leader Thermo Fisher (TMO) is down 0.37%, highlighting ADPT’s divergence in the diagnostics space. Watch for $18.50 breakout or a retest of $17.50 support to define the next phase of this biotech’s rally.