Adaptive Biotechnologies' Q4 2024: Key Contradictions in ASP, Volume Growth, and NovaSeq X Transition

These are the key contradictions discussed in Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation's latest 2024Q4 earnings call, specifically including: ASP expectations, MRD volume growth assumptions, Medicaid reimbursement opportunities, and NovaSeq X transition:



Revenue and Financial Performance Growth:
- Adaptive Biotechnologies reported total revenue of $47.5 million for Q4 2024, a 4% increase year-over-year, with MRD revenue growing 31% to $40.1 million.
- The growth was primarily driven by a 40% increase in clonoSEQ clinical revenue and a 44% increase in MRD Pharma revenue, including regulatory milestones.

Clinical Testing and Market Expansion:
- There was a 34% increase in clonoSEQ test volume, with 20,945 tests delivered in Q4 2024 compared to 15,680 tests in the previous year.
- This growth was attributed to increased volume in multi myeloma (43%), acute lymphoblastic leukemia (34%), and significant contributions from blood-based testing.

Operational Efficiency and Margin Improvement:
- Sequencing gross margin improved to 59% in Q4 2024, up 3 percentage points sequentially and 11 percentage points from Q4 2023.
- This improvement was due to lower overhead costs and direct labor leverage, as well as efficiencies in the production lab.

Immune Medicine and Drug Discovery Focus:
- The immune medicine segment revenue was $7.3 million, down 51% from the prior year, focusing on drug discovery efforts.
- This shift in focus was due to the strategic decision to center resources on drug discovery, impacting revenue from collaborations and academic services.