ADAJPY Market Overview: Strong 24-Hour Rally with Technical Confirmation

• ADAJPY opened at 98.46, surged to a high of 101.54, and closed at 100.42 amid strong volume.
• A 5.8% intraday swing and key 99.13–100.06 consolidation suggest a bullish breakout potential.
• Volume spiked 2.3× above the 24-hour average during the 0445–0600 ET window, confirming upward momentum.
• RSI overbought above 75 and MACD crossed into positive territory, aligning with the 15-minute uptrend.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating increased volatility and a potential trend continuation.

Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at 98.46 on October 23 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 101.54 during the 12:45–1:00 ET window, and closed at 100.42 by 12:00 ET on October 24. The 24-hour period saw a total trading volume of 351,413.9 units and a notional turnover of ¥185.5 million, with a notable 6.1× spike in volume between 04:45–06:00 ET. The pair exhibited a clear bullish bias after breaking above the 99.86–100.0 resistance cluster, which was previously a key support level.

The 15-minute chart revealed a classic bullish engulfing pattern forming at 99.82, with a strong follow-through above the 100.0 psychological level. The 20-period moving average (20 EMA) crossed above the 50-period moving average (50 EMA) during the 05:00–05:15 ET window, signaling a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period daily moving average currently sits at 99.42, providing a dynamic support reference.

On the momentum side, the RSI reached overbought territory (78.5) during the 12:45–1:00 ET rally, suggesting a possible pullback or continuation depending on volume confirmation. MACD, which had been in a negative phase for the prior 48 hours, turned positive at 04:45 ET and maintained its bullish divergence with price. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 04:45–06:00 ET window, indicating increased volatility and a higher probability of trend extension. The price action closed near the upper Bollinger Band, a sign of strong bullish conviction.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart indicated a 38.2% level at 99.98 and a 61.8% level at 100.28, both of which were respected and then exceeded. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the recent downtrend sits at 99.86, now a critical support level. Volume and notional turnover remained aligned with price action, with no notable divergences observed.

The market appears to be in a short-term bullish phase, with technical indicators confirming the upward breakout. A continuation of the current trend could target 101.8–102.0 in the next 24 hours. However, investors should remain cautious of a potential pullback to the 99.8–100.0 range, where key moving averages and Fibonacci levels congregate.

Backtest Hypothesis
The recent rally in ADAJPY has shown a confluence of bullish signals including a confirmed breakout above key resistance, a bullish engulfing candle, and a positive divergence in the MACD. A backtest using the Bullish Engulfing and MACD Positive Divergence indicators could offer further insight into the pair’s potential. However, due to the current unavailability of these signals, a proper 3-day-hold backtest cannot be executed at this time. To proceed, the correct symbol format must be confirmed. If ADAJPY is not available in most data platforms, switching to ADAUSD may be necessary. Once the correct symbol is provided, the backtest can be executed to evaluate the profitability of these combined signals.