ADAJPY Market Overview for 2025-10-04

• ADAJPY declined 5.5% over the past 24 hours, forming a bearish continuation pattern with multiple rejection levels near 129.28.
• High volatility seen in early hours, followed by a consolidation phase and a final leg down below 125.
• RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting potential near-term bounce, though volume remains muted.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the last major drop, indicating a breakout to the downside.
• Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at 125.3 aligns with recent lows, signaling a potential short-term support.

At 12:00 ET – 1 on October 3, 2025, Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at 128.22, reached a high of 131.62, and closed at 124.64 at 12:00 ET on October 4. Total 24-hour volume was 669,413.1, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥83,404,677.2. The price action was bearish, marked by a sharp decline in the early morning hours and a consolidation phase in the latter half of the session.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart for ADAJPY showed a bearish continuation pattern, with key resistance levels identified around 129.28 and 130.67. A strong rejection at 129.28 on the 17:00 ET candle followed by a breakdown at 127.62 marked a significant bearish shift. A doji formed at 127.16, indicating indecision. Later in the session, a bearish engulfing pattern appeared as the price fell from 126.15 to 125.84, reinforcing the downward momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below key swing highs, signaling bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages suggest a medium-term bearish bias, as the price is below both indicators, with no clear sign of a reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early morning hours, confirming the downward trend. The RSI dropped into oversold territory near 28, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the momentum has not yet reversed, and the divergence between price and RSI indicates caution.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility initially expanded during the morning hours before tightening between 126.05 and 128.08. The price broke below the lower band at 125.84, confirming a breakout to the downside. The bands currently sit around 125.3 and 126.7, with price near the lower boundary, signaling potential for a rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the key bearish breakouts, particularly at 127.62 and 125.84. Notional turnover remained consistent with volume, showing no divergence. The largest single candle by volume occurred at 127.62 with 78,603.5 units traded, reinforcing the significance of that level. Volume tailed off in the afternoon, suggesting exhaustion in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute move from 131.62 to 124.59, the 61.8% retracement is at 126.91, which aligns with the 126.76–126.84 cluster. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the recent high is near 126.3, which is currently below the current price level. This suggests that the price may find short-term support near 124.84 to 125.3, based on Fibonacci levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described leverages RSI and Bollinger Band breakouts as entry signals. Given the recent RSI reaching oversold territory and the price breaking below the Bollinger Band, a long setup could be triggered if a bullish reversal candle forms at or near 125.3. This could be confirmed by a reversal candle with a higher close and lower open, ideally with volume increasing at the support level. A stop-loss could be placed below the last rejection at 124.3, with a target aligned to the 61.8% retracement at 126.91. The RSI divergence seen in the late afternoon may suggest a low-probability short-term bounce, making this a low-risk, high-reward setup if the price respects key support levels.