ADAJPY Market Overview for 2025-09-25

• Price declined from 123.24 to 118.69, forming bearish patterns and breaking key support levels.
• RSI and MACD indicate bearish momentum, with RSI approaching oversold territory.
• Volatility increased as the price moved below the Bollinger Band midpoint, indicating a strong downward bias.
• High-volume bearish move below 121.05 suggests significant short-term bearish conviction.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-24, ADAJPY opened at 123.08 and reached a high of 123.26 before declining to a 24-hour low of 116.44. The price closed at 118.69 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. Total volume amounted to 1,052,531.9 with a notional turnover of ¥129,730,059.2.

Structure & Formations

The price declined in a clear bearish sequence, with several significant bearish patterns emerging, including a shooting star near 123.0 and a bearish engulfing pattern at 122.6–122.4. A strong support level appears to have formed near 116.74–116.96, which is currently acting as a price floor.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price remains below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish trend. The daily 50-period moving average is at ~122.50, while the 200-period MA is near 123.30, suggesting the market is in a clear downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The RSI has dropped to ~30, approaching oversold levels, while the MACD has been in negative territory for most of the session, with bearish divergences observed in late-night trading. These suggest further downward momentum could follow, though a sharp rebound above 120.0 may signal a short-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded during the early morning hours, with the price breaking below the lower band. This expansion typically precedes a consolidation phase, though given the strength of the bearish move, the price may test key Fibonacci levels below 118.30 before stabilizing.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked significantly during the early hours of 2025-09-25, especially between 03:30 and 05:30 ET, as the price broke through 118.42 and fell to 117.86. Notional turnover confirmed the bearish breakout, aligning with price action to signal a strong shift in sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 15-minute swing from 123.24 to 116.44 aligns with key Fibonacci levels. 61.8% (~118.60) and 38.2% (~120.50) appear to be significant psychological and technical thresholds. The price has stalled just above 118.60, which may either act as a short-term support or trigger a breakdown if volume increases.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish bias, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry at or below the 118.60–118.70 level with a stop above 120.0. This would aim to capture a continuation of the decline toward 116.74–116.96, based on the strength of the MACD divergence and the confirmation of the Fibonacci target. A time-based exit could be set for 30–60 minutes post-entry, depending on volatility and volume confirmation, with a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2.