ADAJPY Market Overview for 2025-09-20

• ADAJPY traded in a volatile range, with a 24-hour high of 134.41 and low of 131.39, reflecting mixed sentiment.
• Price closed near the 132.82 level, showing some reversion to key support after a brief rally.
• Notable volume spikes occurred near 133.0 and 134.0, aligning with resistance and breakout attempts.
• RSI and MACD suggested short-term overbought conditions in the morning, followed by bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Band width widened during the early session, indicating a potential shift in volatility.

The Cardano/Yen pair (ADAJPY) opened at 132.72 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET and closed at 132.82 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 134.41 and low of 131.39 during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 858,029.9, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 113,058,934.8 JPY. Price action displayed a mixed trend, with strong bearish pressure late in the evening and a late-day rebound.

Structure & Formations

The ADAJPY candlestick chart displayed several key structures over the last 24 hours. A notable engulfing bearish pattern appeared at 133.63–132.71 (09:00–09:45 ET) signaling short-term bearish momentum. Later, a bullish reversal at 132.26–132.52 (10:15–10:30 ET) suggested short-covering or buying at support. Key support levels included 132.24–132.5, and resistance emerged at 133.0–133.26. A doji at 132.24 (11:45 ET) highlighted indecision near the 132.24 level.

Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands

The 15-minute chart showed ADAJPY trading below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages after 07:00 ET, indicating short-term bearish bias. The 200-period MA on the daily chart, if plotted, would sit near 132.0, suggesting a potential long-term support area. Bollinger Bands widened during the early hours, particularly between 08:00–09:00 ET, indicating increased volatility. Price hovered around the lower band in the early morning but bounced into the middle band by late afternoon.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory for most of the session, with bearish divergence developing after 08:00 ET. A brief bullish crossover occurred near 10:15 ET, aligning with a rebound in price but failing to sustain. The RSI showed overbought conditions in the morning (near 65–70), followed by a drop below 30 in the late evening, signaling oversold conditions. This divergence between RSI and price suggested the potential for a reversal or consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during key price moves, particularly around 133.0 (17:45–18:00 ET) and 134.0 (08:00–08:30 ET). The highest notional turnover occurred near 133.63–132.71 (09:00–09:30 ET), where volume reached over 17,450 contracts and turnover hit ~2.3M JPY. Price and turnover moved in alignment during bullish phases but showed a mild divergence during the 133.0–133.6 resistance range, suggesting some profit-taking and short-term profit realization.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels over the last major swing (131.39–134.41) were 133.34 (61.8%) and 132.95 (38.2%). Price tested the 61.8% level on several occasions and failed to break through, indicating potential resistance. The 38.2% level (132.95) acted as a key support during the 09:15–10:00 ET time frame, reinforcing the likelihood of continued range-bound trading.

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable backtest strategy would involve entering a short position when ADAJPY breaks below the 38.2% Fibonacci level (132.95) with a stop loss above the 50% retracement level (133.39) and a target at 132.24 (61.8% support). This setup would align with observed bearish divergence in MACD and RSI, as well as volume confirmation near key resistance. Conversely, a long trade could be triggered on a break above the 133.63–133.76 range, with a stop below 133.0 and a target at 134.0. These levels are supported by recent price action and Fibonacci retracement analysis.