Abivax (ABVX) se eleva un 5% por especulaciones de fusiones y adquisiciones y catalizadores clínicos - ¿Qué viene para el estrella de la biotecnología?

Summary
• Abivax (ABVX) rockets 5.03% to $145.31, hitting a 52-week high of $148.83
• Rumors of Eli Lilly acquisition talks and positive Phase 3 UC data drive frenzy
• Analysts upgrade to 'Overweight' as $11B market cap hints at strategic floor

Abivax’s intraday surge reflects a perfect storm of M&A speculation and clinical validation. With Eli Lilly rumored to court the biotech and a $11B valuation, the stock’s 5.03% gain underscores its transformation from a clinical bet to a strategic acquisition target. The $145.31 price, up from $138.35, signals investor confidence in Obefazimod’s UC and Crohn’s potential.

M&A Speculation and Clinical Data Fuel Abivax’s Intraday Surge
Abivax’s 5.03% rally stems from dual catalysts: Eli Lilly’s rumored acquisition interest and robust Phase 3 ulcerative colitis (UC) data for Obefazimod. French media reports of Lilly executives meeting the French Treasury to gauge regulatory hurdles reignited M&A hype, while the drug’s 16.4% placebo-adjusted remission rate exceeded analyst expectations. This dual narrative—clinical validation and strategic buyout potential—has repositioned Abivax as a high-conviction biotech play.

Biotech Sector Rally as Amgen Gains 0.745%, Abivax Outperforms on M&A Hype
The biotech sector, led by Amgen’s 0.745% intraday gain, saw broad-based optimism amid favorable macro conditions. However, Abivax’s 5.03% surge far outpaced peers, driven by its unique confluence of M&A speculation and clinical milestones. While Amgen’s modest rise reflects sector resilience, Abivax’s move highlights the sector’s appetite for high-risk, high-reward plays with clear inflection points.

Options and Technicals: Positioning for Abivax’s M&A-Driven Volatility
• MACD: 4.67 (bullish), RSI: 68.71 (neutral), 200D MA: $53.55 (far below)
• Bollinger Bands: $139.01 (upper), $120.96 (middle), $102.91 (lower)
• Kline Pattern: Short-term bullish trend confirmed

Abivax’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with the 200D MA acting as a distant floor. The RSI near 69 indicates no immediate overbought conditions, while the MACD histogram’s positive divergence hints at sustained upward pressure. Key levels to watch: $148.83 (52W high) and $139.01 (Bollinger upper band).

Top Options:
• ABVX20260220P160 (Put, $160 strike, Feb 20, 2026):
- IV: 45.50% (moderate), Delta: -0.655 (sensitive to price drops), Theta: -0.002 (slow decay), Gamma: 0.0139 (moderate sensitivity)
- Why: High leverage (7.57%) and IV suggest potential for profit if the stock consolidates or dips post-earnings.
• ABVX20260515P160 (Put, $160 strike, May 15, 2026):
- IV: 37.55% (lower), Delta: -0.588 (less sensitive), Theta: -0.015 (faster decay), Gamma: 0.0114 (moderate)
- Why: Lower IV and longer-dated theta make this a hedge against volatility decay, ideal for a holding pattern.

Payoff Assumptions: A 5% upside to $152.57 would yield $7.57 per share for the Feb 2026 $160 put, though it would expire out-of-the-money. Aggressive bulls may consider a diagonal spread using the May 2026 put as a long-term floor if the stock faces near-term resistance.

Backtest Abivax Stock Performance
The backtest of ABVX's performance following a 5% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 56.93%, the 10-Day win rate is 57.68%, and the 30-Day win rate is 64.04%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 26.00% over 30 days, suggesting that ABVX can offer significant gains even after the initial 5% surge.

Abivax’s M&A Narrative Gains Momentum – Act Before Catalysts Clarity
Abivax’s 5.03% surge is a testament to its dual narrative of clinical progress and strategic buyout potential. With Eli Lilly’s rumored interest and Obefazimod’s UC data validated, the stock is poised for further volatility ahead of key 2026 catalysts. Investors should monitor the $148.83 52W high as a critical breakout level and watch for Amgen’s 0.745% sector leadership to signal broader biotech sentiment. For those seeking leverage, the ABVX20260220P160 put offers a high-leverage bet on near-term consolidation. Act now: Position for a potential $160 strike test or a $139.01 Bollinger band rebound.