ABBV's Options Imbalance and Whale Moves: A Bullish Play at $230 Amid Oversold RSI and Analyst Upgrades

• ABBV trades at $217.74, down 0.65% from $219.16, with RSI at 30.75 (oversold territory)
• Options OI shows 11,702 calls at $230 (next Friday) vs. 5,346 puts at $190—call bias is stark
• Analysts raised price targets to $289, while Linzess' pediatric approval adds long-term catalysts
• MACD (-1.99) and 30D MA ($227.51) suggest price could rebound toward $230–$236

**The stock is caught in a tug-of-war between short-term bearish momentum and long-term bullish fundamentals. But the options market is whispering: if ABBV breaks above $225, the $230–$236 range is in play.**

The Options Imbalance: A Call for Optimism (and a Put for Caution)

ABBV’s options chain tells a story of asymmetric expectations. For Friday expiration, the top call OI is at $222.5 (964 contracts) and $220 (683), while puts peak at $210 (917). But next Friday’s data is more telling: 11,702 calls at $230 (ABBV241018C230) dwarf the 5,346 puts at $190. This 2.2:1 call/put OI ratio suggests institutional players are hedging for a rally—or worse, betting on it.

The block trade of 6,138 calls at $230 (ABBV20251017C230) with $705k turnover is a red flag. That’s not retail noise—it’s a whale signaling confidence in a multi-month move. But don’t ignore the puts: 917 OI at $210 means some traders expect a drop below $217.5 (today’s intraday low).

Key Takeaway: The market is pricing in a potential breakout above $225. If ABBV holds above $216.15 (today’s low), the $230 call strikes could act as a gravity well. But if it cracks below $216, the $210–$212.5 puts might ignite a short squeeze.News Flow: Dividend Hikes vs. Margin Pressures—Which Wins?

AbbVie’s 5.5% dividend boost to $1.73/share is a love letter to income investors. But net income drops and Jim Cramer’s scathing Q3 call critique (“particularly jarring”) highlight operational cracks. The FDA’s pediatric Linzess approval is a silver lining—it could add $500M+ in annual revenue by 2026.

Analysts are split. Piper Sandler’s $289 target (up from $241) assumes strong immunology sales and R&D wins. But margin pressures and patent expirations (noted in Q3 calls) could drag the stock lower if the dividend isn’t enough to satisfy growth investors.

Investor Perception Check: Retail traders might dismiss the dividend as a “buy-and-hold” crutch, but institutions see it as a stabilizer. The $230 call block trade suggests someone’s banking on Linzess’ pediatric rollout and a rebound in oncology sales to offset near-term pain.Actionable Trades: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the PragmaticOption Play 1: Buy ABBV241018C230 (next Friday, $230 call)

• Why: If ABBV breaks above $225 (current 30D MA at $227.51), this strike becomes a magnet. The RSI at 30.75 suggests a rebound is due.
• Risk: If ABBV stays below $225, the call could expire worthless. Set a tight stop at $216.15.

Option Play 2: Buy ABBV241018P210 (next Friday, $210 put)

• Why: The 917 OI at this strike means a drop below $217.5 could trigger a short-covering rally. The 200D MA at $200.67 is a distant floor.
• Risk: If ABBV holds above $216.15, the put could decay rapidly. Use this as insurance, not a speculative bet.

Stock Play: Buy ABBV at $225–$227.50 with a Target at $230

• Entry: If ABBV retests the 30D MA ($227.51) and closes above it, consider buying near $225. The Bollinger Band upper at $236.79 is a long-term target.
• Stop-Loss: Below $216.15 invalidates the bullish case. Exit if the price breaks this level.
• Take Profit: $230–$236 aligns with the call-heavy OI and 30D/100D MA crossover.

Volatility on the Horizon: ABBV’s Crossroads

The next 30 days will test AbbVie’s resolve. A breakout above $225 could trigger a rally toward $230–$236, fueled by the call-heavy OI and Linzess’ pediatric rollout. But a drop below $216.15 might force the stock into the $210–$212.5 range, where put-heavy OI could spark a rebound.

Final Take: This isn’t a binary bet. The options market is pricing in a high-stakes game of chicken. If you’re bullish, the $230 calls and $225 stock entry offer a clear path. If you’re bearish, the $210 puts provide downside protection. But one thing’s certain: ABBV won’t stay in the $216–$219 range for long.