ABBV Call OI Surge at $230 Signals Bullish Breakout Potential: How to Position for a 5% Upside Move

• ABBV trades at $219.46, up 0.42% with volume at 1.79M, near 30D support/resistance cluster of $222.25–$222.61
• Options data shows 760 open interest in $230 calls expiring next Friday, 3x higher than nearest strike
• Block trade of 6,138 contracts at $230 call suggests institutional positioning for a $220+ move

The confluence of technical indicators, options positioning, and corporate developments points to a high-probability upside breakout for AbbVie. With the stock hovering near key support levels and a 760-contract block trade at the $230 call, market participants are clearly pricing in a 5%+ move by October 17. This article deciphers the options-driven narrative and provides actionable trade setups for both equity and options traders.

Bullish Imbalance in Options Open Interest and Institutional Positioning

The options market is painting a clear picture of asymmetric risk/reward. For Friday expiration, the $230 call (OI: 760) dwarfs the next most liquid strike at $220 (OI: 513), while put open interest remains muted with only 463 contracts at the $215 put. This 16:1 call/put ratio at the top strikes suggests aggressive positioning for a $220+ move. The block trade of 6,138 contracts at the $230 call—equivalent to ~8x average daily volume at that strike—further validates this thesis.

This distribution indicates two key dynamics: 1) Institutional investors are hedging against a potential $220+ move, and 2) Retail traders are underweighting the upside potential given the 63% response rate in the QULIPTA® Quebec reimbursement and 70% efficacy in BPDCN trials. The danger zone lies below $216.05 (middle Bollinger Band), where the 200D MA at $192.65 could re-ignite bearish momentum if the stock fails to break above $222.61.

Corporate Catalysts Amplifying Options Sentiment

AbbVie’s recent news flow creates a self-fulfilling prophecy for the options-driven narrative. The patent extension for Rinvoq to 2037 alone adds $12B in incremental revenue potential, while the $1.2B acquisition of bretisilocin introduces a $5B+ blockbuster candidate. These developments align with the technical setup: the stock is currently trading at 6.3% above its 200D MA, a level where momentum stocks often experience re-rating.

The recent $1.64 dividend increase (310% growth since 2013) and $23M Dublin facility expansion further reinforce the company’s financial strength. However, the terminated I-Mab collaboration and Q2 underperformance highlight execution risks. The key is whether the market will price in these catalysts before the $230 call expiration on October 17.

Actionable Trade Setups for October 17 Expiration

For options traders:

• Bold the $230 call (ABBV20251017C230) with a 760 OI and 6,138 block trade volume. Entry at $1.25–$1.50 (implied $221.25–$221.50 breakeven) offers 15–20% ROI if the stock closes above $225.
• Bold the $222.5 call (OI: 230) as a cheaper alternative for a $220+ move, with 3x leverage over the stock.

For equity traders:

• Bold entry near $219.50 (current price) with a $225 target (6.1% upside) and stop-loss at $216.05 (middle Bollinger Band). The 30D MA at $213.28 provides a secondary support level.
• Consider a bullish diagonal spread: buy the $215 put (OI: 463) and sell the $225 call (OI: 760) to capture volatility while limiting downside risk.

Volatility on the Horizon: Positioning for a Post-Expiration Move

The $230 call’s dominance in open interest suggests a potential volatility spike if the stock breaks above $222.61. With the RSI at 60.84 and MACD histogram turning positive, the technical indicators align with the options-driven narrative. However, the 200D MA at $192.65 remains a critical psychological level—any close below $216.05 would invalidate the bullish case.

The key catalysts to monitor between now and October 17 include the FDA decision on tavapadon (October 1) and the ASCO 2025 data presentation (October 15). These events could either accelerate the stock’s move toward $230 or trigger a retest of the $216.05 support. Positioning now allows traders to capitalize on the asymmetric risk/reward profile while managing downside through strategic options hedging.