AAPL Options Signal Bullish Setup at $280–$285: Here’s How to Play the Mizuho-Backed Rebound

• Mizuho and Morgan Stanley both upgraded Apple to Buy with a $315 price target, but Barclays kept its Sell rating.
• Insider selling spiked last month, with Apple’s CFO selling $1M+ in shares.
• Options market favors bulls: Call open interest dominates at $280–$300 strikes, while puts at $230–$200 hint at downside caution.
• Technical setup is mixed: Short-term bearish patterns clash with long-term bullish momentum.

The stock is at a crossroads. Options data and analyst ratings point to a potential rebound, but insider selling and bearish technicals warn of risks. Let’s break it down.Bullish Calls at $280–$285 vs. Deep Puts at $200–$230: What’s the Play?

The options market is split. Call open interest peaks at $280 (47,099 contracts) and $285 (32,355) for Friday expiration, while puts at $230 (22,631) and $200 (21,585) show heavy bearish positioning. This suggests a tug-of-war: bulls are betting on a rebound to $280+, but bears are hedging against a sharp drop below $267 (lower Bollinger Band).

Block trades add intrigue. A $431,200 buy of 880 calls at $240 (AAPL20251017C240) hints at institutional confidence in a mid-term rally. Meanwhile, two $478K+ put trades at $255 (AAPL20250919P255) signal caution ahead of the September expiration. These moves suggest smart money is preparing for volatility, not a straight-line trade.

News vs. Options: Can Analyst Hype Offset Insider Doubt?

Mizuho and Morgan Stanley’s Buy ratings are a shot in the arm, but they’re offset by Barclays’ Sell stance and insider selling. Think of it like a party: most guests are cheering for Apple’s AI and services growth, but a few are quietly packing their bags.

The key question: Will retail and institutional investors trust the analysts, or follow insiders’ lead? Right now, options data leans bullish—call open interest is 48% higher than puts—but that could flip if insider selling accelerates.

Trade Ideas: Calls at $280, Puts at $260, or a Bull Call Spread?

For options traders, the most attractive plays are:

• Buy AAPL20251226C280 (next Friday’s $280 call): If AAPL breaks above $275, this could catch a rebound.
• Buy AAPL20251226C285 (next Friday’s $285 call): Higher risk, but rewards if the stock surges past $285.
• Sell AAPL20251226P260 (next Friday’s $260 put): Collect premium if you believe $267 support holds.

For stock traders, consider:

• Entry near $270 (if price tests the lower Bollinger Band at $267). Target $285 if the 30D MA at $274.86 holds.
• Stop-loss below $265: A break here would validate the bearish engulfing pattern.

Volatility on the Horizon: What to Watch

The next 72 hours will be critical. If AAPL holds above $270, the $280–$285 call strikes could ignite. But a drop below $265 would trigger the puts at $230–$200. Either way, the put/call ratio of 0.71 (call-heavy) means the market expects a directional move, not sideways trading.

Final Take: This is a high-conviction setup. Bullish options and analyst ratings line up with long-term bullish momentum, but short-term technicals and insider selling add risk. Play it smart: size down on the $285 call and consider a bear put spread (e.g., buy $260 put + sell $250 put) to cap losses. The next few days will tell if Apple’s bulls can outmuscle the bears.