AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: Target $280–$300 with Caution Below $265

• Current Price Action: AAPL trades at $273.85, up 0.17% with volume surging to 10.7M shares.
• Options Imbalance: Call open interest (2.94M) outpaces puts (2.02M), with heavy concentration at $280 and $300 strikes.
• Key News Catalyst: Q4 revenue growth, 10–12% 2026 guidance, and analyst price targets as high as $350.

The big picture? Options data and fundamentals align for a bullish bias—but watch the $265 support level like a hawk.Bullish Sentiment in the Options Market

The options chain tells a story of conviction. For this Friday’s expirations, the $280 call (OI: 27,828) and $300 call (OI: 13,442) dominate open interest, while puts cluster at $265 (OI: 5,664) and $270 (OI: 6,156). This suggests traders are pricing in a 6–10% rally by January—but not without risk.

The block trade data adds intrigue: A AAPL20251017C240 call was bought in bulk (880 contracts), hinting at institutional bets on a post-holiday rebound. Meanwhile, two large AAPL20250919P255 put trades (totaling 500 contracts) signal hedging activity ahead of the September expiration.

News Flow: Fuel for the Bull Case

Apple’s Q4 results and 2026 guidance are the real game-changers. The 8% revenue growth, 15% services acceleration, and 10–12% full-year target have analysts scrambling to raise price targets. Morgan Stanley’s $315 and Wedbush’s $350 calls are bold, but they’re backed by Apple’s 75.3% services margin and AI-driven demand for high-end devices.

However, insider selling ($58.6M in the last 90 days) and regulatory fines (€98.6M in Italy) add noise. The key question: Will AI adoption and iPhone 16 demand offset these headwinds? Most analysts say yes—but don’t ignore the short-term volatility.

Actionable Trade IdeasFor Options Traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy the AAPL20260109C280 call (next Friday’s $280 strike). Rationale: The 30-day support/resistance range (278.61–279.01) is a psychological hurdle. A break above this could trigger a rush to the $280–$300 calls, where heavy OI exists.
• Bearish Hedge: Sell the AAPL20260109P265 put if AAPL dips below $272.35 (intraday low). The $265 strike has 5,664 puts in OI—but only if the RSI (currently 36.1) fails to rebound.

For Stock Traders:

• Entry Strategy: Consider buying AAPL near $272.35 (intraday low) if the 20-day EMA ($275.19) holds. Target $278.61 (30-day support) as a first profit zone.
• Stop-Loss Alert: If AAPL breaks below the lower Bollinger Band ($268.29), re-evaluate. The 200-day SMA ($230.84) is a long-term floor—but not a short-term one.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next two weeks will test AAPL’s resolve. A break above $279 could ignite a rally toward $285–$300, leveraging the heavy call OI. But a close below $268.29 would validate the RSI’s oversold condition and invite short-term sellers.

Final Take: This isn’t a binary bet. The data leans bullish, but the path isn’t straight. Use the $265–$270 puts as a safety net if you’re long, and keep an eye on the block trades—they often predict institutional moves. In a market that loves narratives, Apple’s AI-driven growth story is the most compelling one out there. Now, it’s about execution.