AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias at $300 Strike: Here’s How to Position for Volatility

• AAPL trades at $278.08, down 0.25% with volume surging to 18.2M shares.
• Call open interest dominates at $300 and $305 strikes for next Friday, while puts cluster at $270 and $275.
• Block trades show mixed signals: 880 calls bought at $240 strike (Oct 17 expiry) and 250 puts traded at $255 (Sep 19 expiry).

Look, the options market isn’t whispering—it’s shouting. With a put/call ratio of 0.698 (calls outpacing puts by 47%) and heavy call open interest at $300, bulls are stacking chips on the table. But here’s the twist: short-term technicals show a bearish kink. This isn’t a simple long or short—it’s a chess game between momentum and positioning. Let’s break it down.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Sentiment

The call/put imbalance screams optimism. For next Friday’s expiry, AAPL20251219C300 (305OI) and AAPL20251219C305 (367OI) dominate, suggesting big players are hedging for a pop above $300. But don’t ignore the puts: AAPL20251219P270 (108OI) and AAPL20251219P275 (81OI) show defensive positioning. It’s a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” setup—traders are prepping for a rally but bracing for a pullback.

Block trades add intrigue. The 880 AAPL20251017C240 calls bought last month hint at a long-term bullish bet, while the 250 AAPL20250919P255 puts traded in September suggest lingering bearish caution. The takeaway? Institutional players are hedging both ways, but the call bias is stronger now.

News Flow: Legal Wins vs. Profit Pressures

Apple’s legal victory in the App Store case is a short-term win, but UBS’s neutral rating and memory price warnings cast a shadow. Here’s the rub: the appeals court ruling removes a near-term overhang, but the App Store’s slowing growth and rising component costs could drag on margins. Retailers and investors are split—some see the legal win as a catalyst for a rebound, others worry about execution risks.

Tim Cook’s lobbying against age verification adds a privacy angle, which could sway consumer sentiment. But if you’re an options trader, the bigger story is the $280 price target from UBS. That’s just $2 above today’s price—and right in the sweet spot of the 30D support/resistance range (278.61–279.01). A breakout here could trigger a rally toward $300, validating those heavy call positions.

Actionable Trade Ideas

For options traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy AAPL20251219C285 (253OI) if AAPL closes above $279.01 today. Target $295–$300 if the 30D MA (274) holds.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy AAPL20251219P270 (108OI) if the stock dips to the Bollinger Lower Band ($264.38). Exit at $275 if resistance holds.

For stock traders:

• Entry near $275 if the 30D support (278.61) holds. Target $285–$290 if the RSI (65.55) breaks above 70.
• Stop-loss at $265 to protect against a breakdown below the 200D MA (228.62).

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will test AAPL’s resolve. A close above $279.01 could reignite the long-term bullish trend, while a drop below $264.38 would validate bearish concerns. The options market is pricing in a 12–15% move by December 19, so position sizing matters. This isn’t a gamble—it’s a calculated bet on Apple’s ability to balance legal wins with profit pressures. Stay nimble, and let the data guide your next move.