AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: 300-Call OI Surge and Whale Moves Point to Strategic Entry Zones for Q1 2026

• AAPL trades at $277.85, down 0.06% but above 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
• Options market shows 0.7 put/call OI ratio, with 48,060 OI at $300 call (next Friday expiry).
• Block trades reveal $478K put purchases and $431K call buys, hinting at mixed positioning.

Here’s the core insight: AAPL’s options activity and technicals suggest a bullish bias with caution on downside risks. The stock is perched near key support/resistance levels, while options data reveals heavy call buying at higher strikes and deep put positioning. Let’s break it down.

Bullish OI Clusters and Whale Moves: A Tale of Two Expiries

The options market is telling a story of optimism. For next Friday’s expiry, the AAPL20251219C300 call has 48,060 open interest—nearly double the $280 strike. This suggests institutional players are pricing in a potential $300+ move, possibly tied to Q4 earnings or product hype. Meanwhile, the AAPL20251219P230 put has 22,531 OI, a deep out-of-the-money bet that hints at contingency planning for a rare bearish scenario.

But it’s the block trades that add intrigue. A $478K put purchase at the AAPL20250919P255 strike (expiring in September) and a $431K call buy at AAPL20251017C240 suggest positioning for multi-month moves. These aren’t just noise—they’re signals that big players are hedging or scaling up ahead of catalysts like AI rollouts or iPhone 17e launches.

News Flow: Why AAPL’s Fundamentals Back the Bull Case

Apple’s recent财报 and product pipeline are a goldmine for bulls. The Services segment grew 13.5% YoY to $109B, and iPhone sales are on track for double-digit growth in Q1 2026. The M5 MacBooks and Vision Pro are winning market share, and cash reserves ($132B) let the company keep buying back stock.

But here’s the catch: regulatory battles and China’s competitive landscape linger. The options market isn’t ignoring this—those deep puts at $230 and $200 exist for a reason. Still, the news flow aligns with the bullish OI clusters. If Services and iPhone momentum hold, $300 isn’t just a number—it’s a target.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Conviction, Puts for Caution

For options traders, the AAPL20251219C280 call is a standout. With 36,287 OI and AAPL trading at $277.85, this strike offers leverage if the stock breaks above its 30D support/resistance range ($278.61–$279.01). A tighter play: the AAPL20251212C287.5 (30,417 OI), which could profit from a short-term pop if the stock closes above $280 this week.

On the downside, the AAPL20251219P277.5 put (21,503 OI) offers a hedge. If AAPL dips below the lower Bollinger Band ($264.63), this strike could cap losses. For stock buyers, consider entries near $276.82 (intraday low) with a stop just below $276.03 (middle Bollinger Band). A breakout above $279.22 (intraday high) could target $285–$290, aligning with the heavy call OI.

Volatility on the Horizon: Positioning for Q1 2026

The coming weeks will test AAPL’s resolve. With the stock straddling short-term bearish and long-term bullish trends, the options market is pricing for a breakout. If the Services segment and iPhone sales meet expectations, the $300 call OI could ignite. But don’t ignore the deep puts—they’re a reminder that even tech giants can stumble. For now, the data leans bullish, but disciplined risk management is key. As the old saying goes, "Buy the rumor, sell the news"—but in AAPL’s case, the rumor might just become the story.