AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: $280 Call OI and Block Buys Highlight Breakout Potential

• AAPL surges 1.6% to $276.20, trading near 30D support/resistance cluster ($271.83–$272.23).
• Call open interest dominates at $280 strike (32,852 contracts this Friday), while block trades show $478K put buy at $255 and $431K call accumulation at $240.
• Raymond James downgrades AAPL to Market Perform, but earnings previews and iPhone 17 momentum suggest $290.85 price target optimism.

Here’s what I mean: The options market is whispering bullishness, but with a twist. While call buying at $280 hints at a potential breakout, bearish block trades at lower strikes suggest hedging by big players. Let’s unpack why this setup could be a golden ticket—or a trap—for traders today.The $280 Call OI and Block Trade Drama

The options chain is screaming: "Watch the $280 level." With 32,852 open interest at that strike (this Friday’s expiry), it’s the most crowded call play in town. Think of it like a traffic jam—everyone’s pointing the same way. But here’s the catch: the RSI is still in oversold territory (31.28), and the MACD histogram is negative (-0.71). That means the rally could be a rebound… or a trap if bears reclaim control.

Block trades add intrigue. A $478K put buy at $255 (expiring Sept 2025) and a $431K call accumulation at $240 (Oct 2025) suggest big players are hedging and positioning for a multi-month rally. It’s like seeing a storm cloud and an umbrella at the same time—uncertainty, but with a plan.

News vs. Options: A Tug-of-War

Raymond James’ downgrade is a speed bump, not a roadblock. They’re worried AAPL’s $4.02T valuation already prices in all the good news—iPhone 17 success, AI partnerships, and a 15% services growth. But here’s the twist: earnings are expected to beat by 10.4%, and the iPhone 17 cycle is just heating up. The market’s 36.52 P/E might be rich, but if revenue keeps growing at 6.43% YoY, that premium could stick.

The real question is: Will investors care about the downgrade if the numbers pop? History says yes. AAPL has beaten earnings for four straight quarters, and the iPhone 17’s edge AI rollout could be the next catalyst. The options market isn’t pricing in a crash—it’s pricing in a controlled rally.

Trade Ideas: Calls, Puts, and Precision Entries

For options traders, the AAPL20260109C280 call (expiring next Friday) is a no-brainer. With 29,239 open interest and AAPL trading at $276.20, this strike is just 5% out of the money. If the stock breaks above the 200D MA ($231.75) and holds the 30D MA ($275.39), this call could double in value by Friday. Entry: $276.20–$277.50. Target: $285 (Bollinger Upper Band). Stop: Below $271.95 intraday low.

For the stock, consider a bull call spread if AAPL dips to $271.83 (30D support). Buy 100 shares at that level and sell the AAPL20260109C280 call to offset cost. The worst-case scenario? AAPL consolidates, and you still own the stock for the long-term. The best-case? A breakout to $290.85 (mean price target) turns this into a 10%+ gain in a week.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will be critical. If AAPL holds above $271.95 and the RSI crosses 35, the $280 call OI could ignite a short-term parabolic move. But if the MACD crosses below the signal line (0.6088) and volume spikes above 5M, it’s time to tighten stops. This isn’t a binary bet—it’s a dance between momentum and caution. And right now, the music’s playing for bulls… but the floor is still slippery.

Final Take: AAPL’s options and news create a tightrope walk. The $280 call is your spotlight, but the block trades and RSI warn: don’t get greedy. Play it smart—trade with a plan, and let the data guide your next move.