AAPL Options Signal $300 Call Contention as P/C Ratio Skews Bullish: Here’s How to Play the RSI 37.5 Bounce

• AAPL trades at $272.37, clinging to a 0.07% gain amid a short-term bearish Kline pattern but long-term bullish moving averages.
• Put/Call OI ratio at 0.7059 (calls dominate) with heavy call OI at $300 and put OI at $230.
• Block trades show $478K in mystery puts and $431K in bought calls, hinting at institutional positioning.

The options market is locked in a tug-of-war between bulls eyeing $300 and bears bracing for a $230 collapse. But here’s the twist: technicals and recent news suggest AAPL could find a floor near $267.85 (lower Bollinger Band) and test $278.61 (30D support) before the holidays. Let’s break it down.

Call OI at $300 vs. Put OI at $230: A Battle for $272.37’s Fate

The options chain is screaming two things:

1. Bullish conviction at $300 calls (OI: 50,677) and $280 calls (OI: 40,587). These strikes act like a gravity well—traders are betting AAPL will rally 9–12% by Friday.
2. Bearish fear at $230 puts (OI: 22,631), a 26% downside bet. But here’s the catch: the RSI at 37.5 is screaming for a rebound, and the 200D MA at $229.72 is still a distant safety net.

Block trades add intrigue. A $478K mystery put block and a $431K bought call block (expiring Oct 17) suggest big players are hedging or scalping volatility. The $280 call OI (20,829) for next Friday also hints at a potential short-term squeeze play.

Contradictory News Flow: Buybacks vs. Valuation Concerns

Forbes and Mizuho are bullish on AAPL’s Services growth and $315 price target, but they’re also warning about overvaluation (DCF model pegs fair value at $223.87). Meanwhile, insider selling and foldable iPhone delays add friction.

Here’s the takeaway: the market is pricing in optimism (buybacks, AI bets) but hedging against regulatory risks and iPhone 16 underperformance. This duality explains the skewed P/C ratio—traders are buying calls for growth but not yet selling puts to lock in downside.

Strategic Entries: Calls at $280, Puts at $260 for 7–13 Day Plays

• For calls: Target the AAPL20251226C280 (next Friday’s $280 call). With 20,829 OI, this strike could ignite if AAPL breaks above $278.61 (30D support). Entry: $272.37–$274.50. Stop-loss below $267.85 (lower Bollinger Band).
• For puts: The AAPL20251226P260 (next Friday’s $260 put) offers downside protection. If AAPL dips below $271.57 (intraday low), this put could gain traction. Entry: $267.85–$270.00.
• Stock play: Buy AAPL near $267.85 if it holds above the lower Bollinger Band. First target: $278.61 (30D support). Second target: $287 (Forbes’ fair value estimate).

Volatility on the Horizon: Position for the $287 Fair Value Target

The next 7–10 days will test AAPL’s resolve. A break above $278.61 could trigger a rally toward $287, while a drop below $267.85 might force a reevaluation of its $315 price targets. Either way, the options market is pricing in a volatile finish.

Bottom line: AAPL isn’t a one-way bet. It’s a tightrope walk between bullish momentum and bearish caution. But for traders with a 7–13 day horizon, the $280 call and $260 put offer clear, data-backed setups. Just keep an eye on those block trades—they might tell us more about the big players’ next move.