AAPL Options Signal $300 Call Bullish Bias: How to Position for Earnings-Driven Volatility

• Current Price Action: AAPL trades at $270.87, down 1.02% from $273.67, with volume surging to 19.3 million shares.
• Options Imbalance: Call open interest dominates at $300 strikes (next Friday), while puts cluster at $260–$270.
• Key News: Morgan Stanley raised AAPL’s price target to $315, but Italy’s $115M fine and Epic’s legal wins add near-term noise.

Here’s the core insight: The options market is pricing in a high-probability rebound toward $280–$300 by early January, but short-term technicals warn of a test of $269.55 support. Let’s break it down.Bullish Call Clusters and Bearish Put Heatmaps

The options chain tells a story of conflicting narratives. For this Friday’s expiration, AAPL20251226C280 and AAPL20251226P260 dominate open interest, showing retail and institutional bets on a $280 breakout or a $260 floor. But the real signal lies in next Friday’s chain: AAPL20260102C300 (12,872 OI) dwarfs all others. That’s not just bullish—it’s a bet on a sharp rebound after the $270.87 dip.

Block trades add intrigue. A 880-lot AAPL20251017C240 buy call (October expiration) suggests big money is hedging a deeper pullback. Meanwhile, two mystery AAPL20250919P255 put trades (250 contracts each) hint at short-term bearish positioning. The takeaway? A tug-of-war between short-term bears (targeting $260–$270) and long-term bulls (eyeing $300+).

News Flow: Earnings Optimism vs. Regulatory Headwinds

Morgan Stanley’s $315 target and Berkshire’s potential halt of AAPL sales are tailwinds. But Italy’s $115M fine and the Epic Games ruling complicate things. Here’s the rub: investors are pricing in earnings growth (driven by iPhone expansion and AI bets) but hedging against regulatory volatility. The recent leadership changes in Apple’s legal/AI teams also signal a pivot—could that spark innovation-driven buying?

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls, Puts, and Precision Entries

1. Options Play: Buy AAPL20260102C280 (next Friday’s $280 call). Why? The $270.87 price is near the lower Bollinger Band ($269.55), and RSI at 30.33 suggests oversold conditions. If AAPL holds above $270.74 (intraday low), this call could catch a rebound.
2. Stock Play: Enter long near $269.55 (lower band) with a stop below $267.5. Target: 30D support at $278.61.
3. Bearish Hedge: Sell a put spread (e.g., AAPL20260102P270 + buy AAPL20260102P265) to collect premium if AAPL dips further.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next two weeks will test AAPL’s resolve. A break above $278.61 (30D support) could reignite the long-term bullish trend, while a close below $269.55 would validate the bear case. The options market is pricing for a $300 finish by January 2nd—but only if Apple’s legal battles don’t escalate. For now, the data says: play the bounce, but keep your seatbelt fastened.

Final Take: This is a stock caught between a rock (regulatory risks) and a hard place (earnings optimism). The $280–$300 call strikes are your best bet to capitalize on the earnings-driven rebound, but don’t ignore the $260–$270 put cluster—it’s a reminder that volatility isn’t going anywhere.