AAPL Options Signal $300 Bullish Push Amid Diverging Tech Sector Trends – Here’s How to Position

• Apple trades at $277.55, down 0.12% with volume surging to 11.35M shares.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $300 and $305, while deep puts at $200–$230 hint at extreme downside bets.
• Block trades reveal $478K put block and $431K call block, signaling active institutional positioning.

Look at today’s options flow and technicals, and one thing becomes clear: the market is pricing in a sharp $300+ move for Apple—but the path there is anything but certain. With calls dominating open interest and key support/resistance levels in play, this is a stock where both bulls and bears are digging in. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Call OI at $300 and Deep Put Skew Signal Strategic Moves

The options market isn’t just bullish—it’s selectively bullish. For next Friday’s expiration (Dec 19), the AAPL20251219C300 call has 48,403 open contracts, while the AAPL20251219C305 sits at 36,741. That’s not accidental. Traders are betting Apple will break above its 200-day moving average ($228) and test the $300 level—a price not seen since late 2024.

But here’s the catch: the put side tells a different story. Deep puts at $200–$230 have massive open interest (e.g., AAPL20251219P230 at 22,526 contracts). These aren’t just hedgers—they’re speculators expecting a catastrophic drop. Why? The block trades hint at why: a $478K put block and a $431K call block in September/October options suggest big players are hedging or amplifying directional bets.

Apple’s AI Divergence and Earnings Fuel Bullish Case, But App Store Risks Lurk

The news flow is a mixed bag. Baird’s $300 price target and Q3’s $102B revenue give bulls cover, but UBS’s neutral rating and App Store growth concerns add friction. Here’s the twist: Apple’s low correlation with AI-driven peers like Microsoft and Nvidia has made it a safe haven during tech sector selloffs. That could work in its favor—if the broader market tanks, Apple might outperform. But if the App Store’s December growth falters, that $280 price target UBS set could evaporate fast.

Target AAPL20251219C300 for $300 Upside, Hedge with $277.5 Puts as Tech Volatility Looms

For options traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy AAPL20251219C300 (Dec 19 $300 call). With the stock at $277.55, this is a 8.1% out-of-the-money bet. If Apple closes above $300 by expiration, the reward could be 3x+.
• Hedge: Buy AAPL20251219P277.5 (Dec 19 $277.5 put) for downside protection. The 30-day support level ($268.24) is just below, but this put locks in a tighter stop.

For stock traders:

• Entry: Consider buying AAPL near $268.24 if the 30-day support holds. A break above $280.03 (today’s intraday high) would validate the bullish case.
• Targets: First target at $285 (Bollinger middle band + 10%), then $300 (Baird’s target). Stop-loss at $263.60 (lower Bollinger band).

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Structural Risks

The key takeaway? Apple is at a crossroads. The options market is pricing in a $300+ move, but structural risks—like App Store growth and AI delays—could derail that. For now, the technicals and options flow favor a bullish bias, but don’t ignore the deep puts. This isn’t a one-way bet. If you’re long, protect it. If you’re short, respect the support levels. The next two weeks will tell whether Apple’s AI divergence is a strength or a weakness.