Opciones de AAPL indican una batalla alcista de $ 280: cómo los comerciantes pueden protegerse o aprovechar la oleada de volatilidad

• AAPL trades at $270.19, down 0.6% from open, with price bouncing near Bollinger Band lower bound
• Options market favors calls: 304K open interest in calls vs. 208K in puts (ratio: 0.68)
• Block trades hint at big money moves: $478K put block and $431K call block in recent weeks

Here’s the deal: Apple’s options market is locked in a tug-of-war between cautious optimism and defensive positioning. The stock’s 31 RSI and oversold Bollinger Bands suggest a short-term rebound could be brewing—but the bearish MACD (-0.11) and heavy call open interest at $280 tell a more nuanced story. Let’s break it down.

The $280 Call Wall and Institutional Hedging

The options chain shows a concentration of call open interest at $280 (32,852 contracts this Friday, 29,239 next Friday). That’s not just noise—it’s a strike level where big money is betting on a breakout above Apple’s 30D MA ($275.39). But here’s the twist: the $265 put OI (8,113 contracts next Friday) tells us someone’s hedging against a drop below key support at $271.83.

Block trades add intrigue. The $478K put block at $255 (AAPL20250919P255) and $431K call block at $240 (AAPL20251017C240) suggest institutions are pre-positioning for a volatile January. Think of it like a chess match: bulls are stacking calls to push the stock higher, while bears are quietly buying puts to protect against a Vision Pro-related slump.

News That Could Tilt the Scales

Raymond James’ “neutral” rating and Apple’s production cutbacks for Vision Pro are headwinds. But here’s the catch: the stock’s $102.5B Q3 revenue and 2.4B user base still anchor long-term value. The market isn’t pricing in magic—it’s pricing in stability. That explains why the $280 call wall persists despite the bearish technicals. Traders need to watch if the $275.47 middle Bollinger Band holds; a break below that could validate the puts at $265.

Actionable Trades for Today

1. Bull Call Spread (Jan 9 Expiry): Buy AAPL20260109C275 ($275 call) at ~$5.20 and sell AAPL20260109C280 ($280 call) at ~$3.80. This caps risk at $1.40 while profiting if AAPL closes above $278.50 by expiry. Why? The $275 strike is near the 30D MA, and the $280 strike has heavy OI to push the stock higher.

1. Stock Entry Play: If AAPL holds above $271.83 (30D support), consider a dip-buy entry at $270–$272 with a stop-loss below $268.42 (lower Bollinger Band). Target $277.50 if the 30D MA breaks.

1. Bear Put Spread (Defensive Play): Buy AAPL20260109P265 ($265 put) at ~$2.10 and sell AAPL20260109P260 ($260 put) at ~$1.30. This limits risk to $0.80 while profiting if AAPL drops below $265—ideal if the block trades at $255 signal deeper selling.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will test Apple’s resolve. A break above $277.82 (intraday high) could trigger a rally toward $282.52 (upper Bollinger Band), validating the call wall. But a close below $269.83 (intraday low) would hand the puts at $265 more momentum. Either way, the options market has already priced in a 7–8% move by January 9. Your job? Pick a side before the 200D MA ($211.75) becomes a distant memory.

Final Take: This isn’t a “buy and hold” moment—it’s a high-stakes chess game. The $280 call wall and block trades suggest a bullish bias, but the puts at $265 are a reminder that Apple’s AI-driven growth story still has kinks to iron out. Play it smart: use spreads to cap risk, and keep an eye on that 30D support. The next move could be a masterclass in options psychology—or a brutal lesson in overvaluation.