5 fondos de inversión que deben comprar en enero: Una guía de un estratega macroeconómico para obtener exposiciones estructurales

The start of 2026 arrives with a high bar set by three consecutive years of strong equity returns. The S&P 500 has now posted gains for three straight years, consistently outperforming its long-term average of roughly 10%. This sets a challenging baseline for any new strategy. Yet, the market's recent strength masks deeper structural fractures. The economic recovery is increasingly described as "K-shaped," with divergent fortunes across sectors and market caps. This fragmentation, coupled with persistent geopolitical volatility, makes tactical, short-term bets on seasonal patterns like the "January Effect" a risky proposition.

The evidence points to a more complex reality. While the S&P 500 has rallied, with the SPY ETF gaining 1.2% from the start of the year through January 6th, value stocks have shown relative strength over growth. This divergence underscores the need for a strategic approach to asset allocation. Investors are not just choosing between sectors; they are navigating a landscape where international diversification is a critical risk management tool, and bonds can serve as portfolio ballast during periods of volatility. The record inflows into the ETF industry-over $1 trillion in new money for the second straight year-have fueled this complexity. With more than 1,100 new ETFs launched in 2025 alone, the sheer volume of choice demands a focus on enduring structural shifts rather than fleeting seasonal trends.

The bottom line is that the ETF industry itself is undergoing a structural shift. Innovation is rapid, but so are costs and complexity. Some funds now carry management expense ratios as high as 3%, a stark contrast to the industry's drive for low-cost indexing. In this environment, the most prudent move is to align ETF selection with macroeconomic realities. This means building portfolios that can withstand a fragmented recovery and geopolitical turbulence, using ETFs that provide broad, efficient exposure to global markets and diversified asset classes. The goal is not to time a January rally, but to position for the structural forces that will shape the market for years to come.

Structural Exposure: 5 ETFs Aligned with 2026's Defining Themes

The macro landscape of a fragmented recovery and persistent geopolitical risk demands ETFs that provide efficient, structural exposure. The following five funds are selected not for a seasonal bounce, but for their alignment with the defining themes of 2026: the persistent rotation toward value, the capital-intensive shift toward AI, the enduring impact of global tensions, the policy-driven expansion of healthcare, and the need for a low-cost, cash-like ballast.

First, the evidence of a value tilt is clear. As the market entered 2026, State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF SPYV (up 1.5%) beat State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF SPYG (up 1%) from the start of this year till Jan. 6, 2026. This divergence underscores a market seeking stability and tangible earnings. For investors looking to capture this structural rotation, SPYV offers a direct, low-cost vehicle into the S&P 500's value segment, providing a core position that benefits from the ongoing "K-shaped" recovery.

Second, the capital allocation toward artificial intelligence is a multi-year structural trend, not a fleeting fad. The Invesco Evolutionary AI ETF (ARKQ) is designed to target the winners in this space. Its portfolio includes companies like Teradyne and Kratos Defense, which are positioned at the intersection of advanced robotics, defense technology, and AI infrastructure. By focusing on these capital-intensive enablers, ARKQ provides exposure to the real economic investment required to build the next technological paradigm.

Third, geopolitical volatility is a persistent feature, directly impacting defense spending. The iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) offers a pure-play on this theme. It capitalizes on the lingering additional worries include heavy spending in the AI space, rich equity valuations, mounting risks in private credit and corporate debt, and a host of geopolitical uncertainties. As tensions persist and U.S. defense budgets remain elevated, ITA provides a direct channel to the companies that benefit from this sustained government outlay.

Fourth, healthcare policy is a major source of structural investment. The iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF (IHI) provides broad exposure to the sector, which is set to benefit from significant government commitments. A key driver is the $370 billion commitment to U.S. drug projects over five years. This policy-driven funding stream supports innovation and commercialization, creating a tailwind for pharmaceutical and biotechnology firms within the ETF's portfolio. It is a bet on the long-term expansion of a critical, non-cyclical industry.

Finally, in a volatile environment, the need for a low-cost, cash-like ballast is paramount. The Dimensional Core Fixed Income ETF (DFCF) serves this role effectively. It offers broad exposure to the U.S. investment-grade bond market with a remarkably low 17 basis point fee. This efficiency is crucial, as it ensures that the fund's primary function-as a portfolio stabilizer during equity turbulence-is not eroded by high costs. It provides a simple, effective way to maintain liquidity and reduce overall portfolio volatility.

Together, these ETFs form a portfolio that is built for the structural forces of 2026, not its seasonal noise.

Practical Integration: Costs, Timing, and Portfolio Construction

Translating these structural themes into a portfolio requires a disciplined focus on costs and timing. The evidence is clear: the path of least resistance is not through seasonal gimmicks, but through efficient, long-term positioning. Consider the stark underperformance of a typical seasonal rotation strategy. The Pacer CFRA-Stovall Equal Weight Seasonal Rotation ETF is down -6.04% year-to-date, a dramatic divergence from the S&P 500's 14.69% gain. This data is a powerful indictment of relying on tactical, short-term bets. It underscores that in a fragmented market, the consistent alpha comes from aligning with macroeconomic forces, not chasing calendar patterns.

Cost management is the next critical layer. Active ETFs, while offering potential alpha, come with a premium. The HAC ETF, for instance, carries a management fee of 0.75%. This is a direct cost for the manager's active decision-making. Investors must weigh this fee against the expected outperformance, especially given the fund's 3.01% Management Expense Ratio (MER) and a 20% performance fee on outperformance. This structure is a new complexity, as the SEC's approval of active ETF share classes introduces another tier for cost-conscious investors to navigate. The lesson is to demand efficiency: a low-cost, broad-market ETF like the Dimensional Core Fixed Income ETF (DFCF) with its 17 basis point fee provides a far more predictable and cost-effective ballast.

Timing, in this context, is about patience and consistency. The structural themes-value rotation, AI capital expenditure, geopolitical defense spending, and healthcare policy-are multi-year trends. They are not resolved by a few weeks of market noise. The portfolio should be built to hold through volatility, using the ETFs identified earlier as durable building blocks. The goal is not to time a January rally, but to ensure the portfolio's cost structure and strategic alignment are optimized for the decade ahead. In a market where costs can erode returns and seasonal strategies fail, the most tactical move is often to stay the course.

Catalysts, Scenarios, and Risk Management

The ETF strategies outlined are built on structural themes, but their success hinges on specific forward-looking catalysts. Investors must monitor a clear set of indicators to validate or challenge the portfolio's thesis.

The most immediate macro catalyst is the trajectory of monetary policy. The evidence suggests most central banks will likely hold off on monetary policy easing in the near term. This scenario would validate the portfolio's focus on value and defensive sectors, as higher rates pressure growth and high-multiple equities. Conversely, a premature shift toward easing would likely reignite momentum and tech leadership, creating a headwind for the value tilt. The key metric here is the timing and pace of rate cuts, which will directly influence the relative performance of growth versus value stocks.

A second critical catalyst is the evolution of the ETF industry itself, particularly the adoption of active share classes. The SEC's approval of active ETF share classes is a structural development that could accelerate the passive-to-active transition. The performance of funds like the HAC ETF post-approval will be a key test. If active ETFs demonstrate consistent, cost-justified outperformance, it could validate a more dynamic, manager-driven approach to portfolio construction. If they fail to deliver, it may reinforce the case for low-cost, passive vehicles as the core of a diversified portfolio.

Finally, geopolitical developments will test the portfolio's international diversification and defensive holdings. The volatility seen in April 2025 serves as a stark reminder of why global exposure is a critical risk management tool. The portfolio's allocation to the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) and the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) is designed to navigate this uncertainty. Monitoring the intensity and duration of geopolitical flare-ups, and their impact on global equity markets and defense budgets, will be essential for assessing the effectiveness of this diversification.

The framework for monitoring is straightforward. For monetary policy, track central bank communications and economic data on inflation and growth. For the ETF industry shift, watch flows into active share classes and their performance relative to benchmarks. For geopolitical risk, monitor conflict developments and their correlation with global equity volatility. By focusing on these catalysts, investors can ensure their structural ETF positions remain aligned with the unfolding macroeconomic and market reality.