3M Plunges 3.65% as Death Cross Signals Prolonged Downtrend

Technical Analysis of 3M (MMM)
3M (MMM) declined 3.65% in the latest session, closing at $153.23 amid heightened volatility, setting the context for a multi-faceted technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals a critical juncture. The July 18 bearish engulfing candle—spanning $150.25–$164.15—overwhelmed the prior three sessions' gains, signaling strong selling pressure. This pattern confirms resistance near $164, aligning with the June 11 peak. Support manifests around $150–$151, tested twice in late June and July, where buyers previously emerged. A sustained break below this zone may trigger accelerated downside momentum.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (MA) has crossed below both the 100-day and 200-day MAs, forming a bearish "death cross." Current price trades beneath all three MAs (153.23 vs. estimated 50-day MA at ~155, 100-day at ~145, 200-day at ~135), confirming a long-term downtrend. This configuration suggests persistent selling pressure, with the declining 50-day MA acting as dynamic resistance.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD exhibits a bearish crossover below its signal line, with histogram bars expanding negatively—a sign of accelerating downward momentum. Meanwhile, KDJ shows the %K line at 20 and %D at 25, entering oversold territory. However, the KDJ’s persistent downward slope since mid-July cautions against premature reversal calls. Divergence emerges as KDJ nears oversold extremes while price makes lower lows, hinting at potential exhaustion, though confirmation requires bullish reversal signals.
Bollinger Bands
Bands widened sharply during the July 18 sell-off, reflecting elevated volatility. Price closed near the lower band ($153.23), typically indicating oversold conditions. The pronounced expansion after a period of contraction (late June to mid-July) suggests a volatility breakout, often extending the current trend. A move back toward the middle band (~$160) would signal short-term stabilization.
Volume-Price Relationship
The July 18 sell-off occurred on significantly elevated volume (11.69 million shares vs. 3-month average ~3.5 million), validating bearish conviction. Conversely, rallies in early July and late June saw below-average volume, questioning their sustainability. This volume divergence underscores weak buying interest during recoveries and aggressive selling during declines, reinforcing the downtrend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI(14) hovers near 30, approaching oversold territory. While this may precede a technical bounce, oversold readings have persisted during prior downtrends (e.g., April 2025). Notably, RSI failed to breach 60 during June–July rallies, reflecting weakening momentum. Traders should treat oversold signals cautiously until RSI sustains above 50.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the March 28 peak ($148.85) and July 18 trough ($150.25), key retracement levels emerge: 38.2% ($156.50) and 50% ($157.55) mark immediate resistance. Confluence exists near $156.50—aligning with the July 15–17 consolidation zone and the 50-day MA—making it a pivotal barrier. A failure to reclaim this level would reaffirm bearish control, targeting the 23.6% retracement at $152.80.
Concluding Synthesis
Multiple indicators converge to emphasize bearish dominance: death cross in MAs, high-volume breakdown, and MACD momentum deterioration. Oversold readings (KDJ, RSI, Bollinger Bands) suggest short-term consolidation potential near $150 support, but any rally faces layered resistance at $156.50 (Fibonacci/MA confluence). The divergence between oversold oscillators and persistent price weakness necessitates cautious interpretation—reversal signals require volume-backed confirmation. Probabilistically, the path of least resistance remains downward below $156.50, with a decisive break of $150 exposing June’s $142–$145 support cluster.