360 Capital REIT (ASX:TOT): A Three-Year Losing Streak—Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel?

Investors who jumped into 360 Capital REIT (ASX:TOT) three years ago are now staring at losses so steep, it’s like watching your money evaporate in real-time. Let’s break down the numbers and ask: Is this a value trap or a buying opportunity?

The Price Plunge: A 51% Drop in Three Years

Let’s start with the raw data:

• April 2022: The stock closed at $0.775 (year-end 2022 price).
• April 2025: The price sits at $0.375, a 51% decline.

This isn’t a minor dip—it’s a freefall. Even worse, the slide isn’t slowing. The stock hit a low of $0.36 in April 2025, flirting with its all-time nadir. What’s driving this? Let’s dig deeper.

Dividends: A Hollow Comfort

The REIT has maintained a $0.0075 quarterly dividend since 2024, but here’s the catch:

• 2022–2023: DPS was $0.015 per quarter, but earnings couldn’t keep up.
• 2024–2025: DPS was halved to $0.0075, yet the payout ratio hit a staggering 199% of earnings (TTM).

This means the REIT is paying more in dividends than it earns, relying on retained earnings or debt to fund payouts. A payout ratio over 100% is a red flag—it’s like borrowing from Peter to pay Paul. If earnings don’t rebound, dividends could vanish, triggering a panic sell-off.

Insider Buying: A Silver Lining or a Hail Mary?

While shareholders are bleeding, insiders are doubling down. Tony Pitt, a major shareholder, bought 2.69 million shares in September 2024. The parent company, 360 Capital Property Limited, holds 42.8% of the stock—no sales reported.

This insider confidence is a positive sign, but it’s not enough. Here’s why:

• Volume Spikes: Trading volumes hit 594,914 shares on February 21, 2025, but daily volumes have since collapsed to just 28,147 shares in April. Low liquidity means getting out could be a nightmare.
• Book Value: At $0.596 per share, the book value is higher than the current price. But if the REIT’s assets (like properties) are overvalued, this could be a mirage.

The Bigger Picture: Underperformance and Debt

• Vs. the Sector: The stock underperformed its sector by -11.22% over the past year.
• Vs. the ASX 200: It lagged by -13.35%, making it a laggard in a struggling market.
• EPS (TTM): A loss of -$0.14, signaling operational struggles.

The REIT is caught in a vise: falling rents, rising vacancies, or mismanaged assets could be to blame. Without a clear turnaround plan, this stock feels like a gamble.

Conclusion: Stay Cautious, But Keep an Eye Open

The numbers scream caution. A 51% loss over three years, a payout ratio that’s off the charts, and a stock that’s trading at half its 2022 value? This isn’t a buy for the faint-hearted.

However, two factors give me pause:
1. Insider Buying: If directors are buying, maybe they see something in the pipeline—a new property acquisition or a cost-cutting plan.
2. Book Value: At $0.596, the stock is trading at a discount. If assets are correctly valued, there’s a floor.

But here’s the rub: Without earnings growth or a dividend reset, this REIT is a walking contradiction. Investors who bought three years ago are in the red, and unless something drastic changes, they might stay there.

Final Take: Avoid new positions unless you’re a contrarian with a high-risk appetite. For those stuck in this losing streak, pray for a miracle—or cut your losses and move on.

Data as of April 2025. Past performance does not guarantee future results.