3 Transport-Service Stocks to Keep an Eye on Despite Industry Hiccups

The Zacks Transportation-Services industry is operating in a difficult environment, pressured by weak freight rates, persistently high inflation and ongoing supply-chain disruptions. Adding to these headwinds are tariff-related uncertainties and high crude prices owing to the ongoing war in the Middle East, which continue to pose significant challenges for the industry.

High oil prices are hurting the bottom line of players in other corners of the broader Zacks Transportation sector as well. This is because expenses on fuel represent a key input cost for any transportation player. For example, Old Dominion Freight Line ODFL is also hurt by this sharp jump in oil prices.

However, despite these near-term concerns, there is an underlying case for long-term optimism. Supported by strong fundamentals, companies such as Expeditors International of Washington EXPD, ZTO Express (Cayman) ZTO and Universal Logistics ULH appear well-positioned to navigate current obstacles and capitalize on opportunities when industry conditions improve.

About the Industry

The companies belonging to the Zacks Transportation-Services industry offer transporters, logistics, leasing and maintenance services. Some industry players focus on the business of global logistics management, including international freight forwarding. Third-party logistics entities provide innovative supply-chain solutions. They also focus on services like product sourcing, warehousing and freight shipping. These companies have expertise in trucking, air and ocean transportation. Some players in this industry deliver domestic and international express delivery services. The well-being of the companies in this industrial cohort is directly proportional to the health of the economy. The still-high inflation reading and elevated oil prices continue to hurt consumer sentiment and growth expectations.

3 Trends Shaping the Future of the Transportation-Services Industry

Freight Downturn Persists: Although economic activities picked up from the pandemic gloom, lingering supply-chain disruptions continue to dent stocks in the industry. Below-par freight rates led by the oversupply of capacity are squeezing profit margins, thereby denting the industry’s prospects. Highlighting the weak freight demand, the Cass Freight Shipments Index declined 7.2% year over year in February. This measure has deteriorated year over year each of the past 11 months, which confirms the overall declining trend.

Surge in Fuel Costs - A Bane: The war between Iran and Israel, backed by the United States, has resulted in soaring crude oil and natural gas prices. The major oil supply line — the Strait of Hormuz — controlled by Iran, remained severely disturbed. About 20% of globally traded oil passes through this critical shipping route. The rise in this key input cost is hurting the bottom line of industry players. This development is likely to hurt the first-quarter earnings of transportation service providers, with the conflict not showing any signs of ending.

Cost Cuts to Boost Margins: The industry is facing input cost inflation, transport and logistics costs and the impact of tariffs. Industry players are constantly implementing cost-reduction actions, which are likely to help sustain margins in this scenario. The companies are focused on streamlining their operations and realigning around high-growth key markets or customer segments to enhance performance.

Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Dull Prospects

The Zacks Transportation - Services industry is a 17-stock group. The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #208, which places it in the bottom 15% of 244 Zacks industries.

The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, the average of the Zacks Rank of all member stocks, indicates dismal near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

The industry’s position in the bottom 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of a negative earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Looking at the aggregate earnings estimate revisions, it appears that analysts are gradually losing confidence in this group’s earnings growth potential. The industry's earnings estimate for 2026 has decreased 32.1% year over year.

Before we present a few stocks from the industry that you may want to retain or buy, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock market performance and the valuation picture.

Industry Lags S&P 500 and Sector

The Zacks Transportation-Services industry has underperformed the Zacks S&P 500 composite and the broader Transportation sector in a year.

The industry has improved 8.8% over this period compared with the S&P 500's appreciation of 16.6% and the broader sector’s uptick of 13.2%.

One-Year Price Performance

Industry's Current Valuation

Based on the forward 12-month price-to-sales, a commonly used multiple for valuing transportation services stocks, the industry is currently trading at 1.73X compared with the S&P 500's 4.67X. The value is higher than the sector's trailing 12-month P/S of 1.45X.

Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 3.01X, as low as 1.45X and at the median of 1.88X.

Price-to-Sales Ratio (F12M)

3 Transport Services Stocks to Watch Now

Universal Logistics (formerly known as Universal Truckload Services) currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and operates as an asset-light logistics player. The company, through its subsidiaries, offers a variety of customized transportation and logistics solutions throughout the United States and also in Mexico and Canada. Universal Logistics provides customers with supply-chain solutions that can be scaled to meet their changing demands.

ULH’s earnings have surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the past four quarters (missing the mark on other occasions). The average beat is 88.8%.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Price and Consensus: ULH

ZTO Express is a leading player in the field of express delivery in China. This Shanghai-based company went public in 2016. ZTO Express and its network partners provide domestic and international express delivery services. Other value-added services supplement the offerings. In China, it mainly focuses on providing express deliveries of parcels, which mostly weigh below 50 kilograms. The expected delivery time ranges from 24-72 hours.

ZTO Express carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The company has a long-term earnings growth expectation of 10.9%, primarily driven by parcel volume. ZTO Express expects its 2026 parcel volume to grow in the range of 42.37 billion to 43.52 billion (reflecting 10-13% year over year growth).

Price and Consensus: ZTO

Expeditors, a leading third-party logistics provider, is based in Seattle, WA. The company currently has a Zacks Rank# 3 (Hold). EXPD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 10.1%.

While weak volumes (concerning air-freight tonnage and ocean containers) stemming from soft demand and declining rates are hurting EXPD’s performance, efforts to cut costs in the face of demand weakness are driving its bottom line.

Price and Consensus: EXPD

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Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD): Free Stock Analysis Report

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL): Free Stock Analysis Report

Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (ULH): Free Stock Analysis Report

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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