'25% Will Go Bankrupt' Dan Rasmussen on the Coming Private Credit Reckoning

Verdad Advisers founder Dan Rasmussen warns that a big chunk of private credit has been mis-sold as “safe” despite being inherently risky, with yields that all but advertise future losses. He argues many institutions treated double-digit-yield loans like investment-grade paper, while a fast-growing cohort of lenders assumed “private equity can do no wrong.” In his words: “It should be relatively obvious that debt that yields 10 to 12 percent is going to default a lot more… In fact, it’s going to default at rates of probably 25 to 30 percent whenever any sort of crisis comes,” and the “cracks in the market are showing.”

Rasmussen, author of The Humble Investor, breaks down:

👉 Why private credit has become Wall Street’s most dangerous illusion

👉 How top-endowments and pension funds are repeating 2008 mistakes

👉 The myth of “expert” investing — and how humility beats prediction

👉 Crisis investing: building portfolios that can survive anything

👉 The risks of AI-driven capital spending and where real value still hides