2028 Democratic nominee odds (Polymarket): Gavin Newsom 20%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18%, Pete Buttigieg 12%, Josh Shapiro 7.2% based on current Polymarket trading probabilities

2028 Democratic nominee odds (Polymarket): Gavin Newsom 20%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18%, Pete Buttigieg 12%, Josh Shapiro 7.2% based on current Polymarket trading probabilities

As the 2028 presidential election approaches, Democratic hopefuls are already making their moves. According to Polymarket trading probabilities, Gavin Newsom leads with a 20% chance, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 18%, Pete Buttigieg at 12%, and Josh Shapiro at 7.2%. This analysis provides a glimpse into the early stages of the Democratic primary race.

Key Candidates and Their Campaign Strategies

Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, has been actively campaigning in early primary states like South Carolina, aiming to gain attention and momentum. His strong response to recent events in Los Angeles has positioned him as a potential face of the resistance against former President Trump. However, he faces challenges due to his perceived liberal stance and "California air" [1].

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a representative from New York, is another notable candidate with a strong following among progressives. Her platform focuses on social and economic justice, which resonates with many Democrats. However, she has not yet announced her candidacy, and her decision to run for governor of California or president remains uncertain [1].

Pete Buttigieg, who served as the transportation secretary and previously won the Iowa caucuses in 2020, has been actively engaging with voters and working to expand his appeal beyond the traditional Democratic base. His ability to communicate effectively and his experience in government positions him as a strong contender [1].

Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, is a moderate candidate who has proven his ability to win in a traditionally Republican state. His focus on issues like infrastructure and education could appeal to a broader range of voters. However, his relatively low odds suggest that he may face an uphill battle in gaining traction among Democrats [1].

Early Campaigning and Primary Calendar

The Democratic primary calendar is still being finalized, but it is expected that New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada will remain early states. Iowa, which was traditionally an early state, may not regain its position due to changes made by former President Biden [1].

Challenges and Opportunities

Each candidate faces unique challenges and opportunities. Newsom must overcome perceptions of liberalism, while Ocasio-Cortez must decide between running for governor or president. Buttigieg's strength lies in his communication skills and experience, but he must also address his lack of legislative experience. Shapiro's moderate stance could appeal to a broader range of voters, but he may struggle to gain traction in the primary.

Conclusion

The 2028 Democratic primary race is shaping up to be a competitive one, with several strong candidates already making their moves. As the campaign season progresses, it will be interesting to see how these candidates navigate the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

References

[1] CNN. (2025, July 17). 2028 presidential election: Democrats making moves. Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/17/politics/2028-presidential-election-democrats-analysis