Riesgos y oportunidades macro para 2026: Navegar los trabajos, la inflación y los cambios de mercado impulsados por IA

The global economy in 2026 stands at a crossroads, shaped by divergent inflation trajectories, central bank policy recalibrations, and the accelerating integration of artificial intelligence (AI) across industries. For investors, the year presents both risks and opportunities, demanding a nuanced understanding of macroeconomic dynamics and technological shifts. Strategic positioning ahead of potential inflection points requires a dual focus: mitigating inflationary pressures and labor market turbulence while capitalizing on AI-driven productivity gains and sectoral reallocations.

Inflation and Central Bank Policy: A Divergent Path

The inflation outlook for 2026 is marked by moderation in developed markets, though uncertainties persist. Goldman Sachs Research projects U.S. core PCE inflation will decline to 2.5% by year-end 2026, driven by base effects and slowing wage growth, while JPMorgan forecasts a peak of 3.3% in late 2025 before easing to 2.4% by Q4 2026. However, Deutsche Bank cautions that AI adoption and fiscal stimulus could push CPI inflation to 3.9% in 2026, highlighting structural risks.

Central banks are poised to respond with a mix of caution and gradualism. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 50 basis points in 2026,

targeting a neutral policy stance of 3-3.25% as inflation aligns with targets. The Bank of England may follow suit, with two rate cuts anticipated in early 2026, while the European Central Bank is likely to hold rates steady, prioritizing inflation stability over aggressive easing. In contrast, the Bank of Japan will continue its normalization path, raising rates to 0.75% by late 2025 before pausing in 2026. These divergent policies will create cross-border yield differentials, favoring investors with exposure to U.S. and U.K. assets but complicating global portfolio allocations.

Labor Market Turbulence and AI's Double-Edged Impact

The labor market in 2026 will be defined by AI-driven disruptions and policy responses. J.P. Morgan estimates U.S. unemployment could peak at 4.5% in early 2026, exacerbated by trade policy shifts and automation-driven job displacement. While AI investments are projected to boost productivity and GDP growth, their impact on employment remains uneven. Small businesses, lacking capital for retraining and phased automation, face disproportionate job losses, whereas large enterprises are adding roles in AI integration and data governance.

Policy interventions are emerging to address these imbalances. The U.S. Department of Labor's AI Workforce Research Hub, launched in Q4 2025, aims to quantify AI's labor market effects and design training programs for in-demand skills as reported by NextGov. Meanwhile, a Stanford-led report emphasizes the need for workforce development in critical thinking and adaptability, as AI reshapes job roles. Investors should monitor these policy shifts, as they will influence labor costs, innovation cycles, and sectoral performance.

Strategic Investment Opportunities in an AI-Driven World

The integration of AI into enterprise systems is accelerating, with Gartner predicting 40% of enterprise applications will incorporate AI agents by year-end 2026. This transformation creates opportunities in high-quality fixed income, U.S. value equities, and non-U.S. developed markets, as identified by Vanguard. Sectors such as manufacturing and supply chain management are leveraging agentic AI to enhance agility, while energy and resource-intensive industries face challenges in sustaining AI expansion due to rising demand for critical minerals and water as highlighted in a World Economic Forum report.

Investors must also weigh the risks of an AI "readiness gap." Despite $2 trillion in global AI spending projected for 2026, many firms struggle to operationalize AI effectively, with 95% of initiatives failing to deliver measurable value. This underscores the importance of governance frameworks and data infrastructure in realizing AI's potential.

Positioning for Inflection Points

To navigate 2026's macro risks and opportunities, investors should adopt a dual strategy:
1. Hedge against inflationary tail risks by overweighting sectors with pricing power (e.g., AI-driven manufacturing) and underweighting labor-intensive industries vulnerable to automation.
2. Capitalize on AI-driven productivity by allocating to high-quality fixed income and equities in firms with robust AI integration and ESG-aligned resource management.

Central bank policy divergence and AI's uneven labor market impact will create volatility, but they also offer asymmetric opportunities for those who act decisively. As the year unfolds, real-time data on AI adoption, wage trends, and policy interventions will be critical for recalibrating portfolios.