2026 Comeback Picks: 3 S&P Laggards Poised to Break Out

In the ever-shifting landscape of equity markets, contrarian value investing thrives on identifying stocks that have been unfairly punished by sector rotation or macroeconomic headwinds. As 2026 approaches, three S&P 500 laggards-Fiserv (FISV), The Trade Desk (TTD), and Deckers Outdoor (DECK)-stand out as compelling comeback candidates. These companies have been battered in 2025 due to cyclical shifts in capital flows, yet their fundamentals remain robust. With macroeconomic tailwinds such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, surging election-related ad spending, and a potential AI mean reversion, these undervalued names are primed to outperform in 2026.

Fiserv: Payment Networks Rebound Amid AI Mean Reversion

Fiserv, a leader in financial technology, has as investors rotated capital away from payment networks toward AI-driven fintech and crypto rails. However, this selloff has created an attractive entry point for contrarian investors. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 6.4x, one of the lowest in its sector, while over the next 12 months. A .

The key catalyst lies in sector rotation dynamics. Payment networks, long overshadowed by AI hype, are poised to benefit from a mean reversion as investors reassess valuations. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's projected rate cuts in 2026-bringing the benchmark rate to 3.00–3.25%-will reduce borrowing costs for financial institutions, indirectly boosting demand for Fiserv's services. As J.P. Morgan notes, a non-recessionary easing cycle typically favors risk-on assets like fintech, which Fiserv exemplifies.

The Trade Desk: AI-Driven Ad Tech and Election Ad Spending

The Trade Desk, a digital advertising platform, has , driven by broader sector rotation into AI-focused growth stocks. Yet, the company's strategic investments in AI-such as its Kokai platform-position it to capitalize on the next phase of digital advertising. The Trade Desk's , outperforming expectations. Analysts project a 35% earnings increase in the next 12 months, .

A critical tailwind for The Trade Desk is the surge in election-related ad spending. Political advertisers are projected to spend $10.8 billion on the 2026 midterms, with $2.5 billion allocated to (CTV) platforms. The Trade Desk's dominance in -offering precise targeting and cross-platform analytics-makes it a direct beneficiary of this trend. As Axios highlights, CTV's share of political ad spending is accelerating, reflecting a shift toward data-driven campaigns. With AI enhancing ad personalization and efficiency, The Trade Desk's moat is strengthening at a time of rising demand.

Deckers Outdoor: Resilient Consumer Durables in a Rotation-Driven Downturn

Deckers Outdoor, owner of the Hoka and UGG brands, has due to capital rotation into AI and tech stocks. However, its Q2 2026 results demonstrate resilience: , . .

Despite these fundamentals, the stock trades at a discount to its 2020 valuation, even as revenue has tripled since then. This disconnect stems from macroeconomic concerns, including tariffs and inflation, which have historically pressured consumer durables. However, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in 2026 are expected to ease consumer spending, particularly for discretionary items like footwear and apparel. Goldman Sachs notes that a lower interest rate environment typically benefits sectors with high consumer sensitivity, such as retail. Deckers' strong gross margin (56%) and operating margin (22.8%) further insulate it from near-term volatility.

Macro Tailwinds: Rate Cuts, Election Ad Spending, and AI Mean Reversion

The convergence of macroeconomic and sector-specific factors creates a powerful case for these three stocks. The Federal Reserve's projected rate cuts-two in 2026-will reduce borrowing costs and stimulate demand in both fintech and consumer sectors. Meanwhile, election-related ad spending is set to reach record levels, with CTV becoming a critical battleground for The Trade Desk. Finally, the is maturing, creating opportunities for in undervalued sectors like payment networks and ad tech.

Conclusion: Contrarian Value Investing in Action

Fiserv, The Trade Desk, and Deckers Outdoor represent a rare trifecta of undervaluation, strong fundamentals, and favorable macroeconomic tailwinds. Their 2025 declines were driven by cyclical sector rotation, not operational failures. As 2026 unfolds, investors who recognize these dynamics will be well-positioned to capitalize on a potential rebound. For contrarian value investors, these three S&P laggards are not just comeback picks-they are strategic plays in a market poised for realignment.