Cambios estructurales para 2025: IA, tarifas y la erosión de la independencia de la Fed

The S&P 500 closed 2025 with a total return of 17.88%, marking its third consecutive year of double-digit gains. This performance, driven by a powerful AI narrative and resilient corporate earnings, masked a year of extreme volatility. The central tension was a sharp, market-shaking sell-off in April, triggered by President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff announcements. The index plunged, dropping almost 19% from its February high and briefly closing below 5,000-a move that pushed it into bear market territory.

The subsequent recovery was textbook V-shaped. After the initial shock, a detente on trade tensions and a renewed surge of enthusiasm for artificial intelligence powered a dramatic rebound. This rally was not a gentle climb but a series of powerful moves, with the S&P 500 posting 39 new record highs throughout the year. The index ultimately shrugged off the early-year turmoil to deliver a robust price return of 16.39%.

This resilience, however, highlights an underlying vulnerability. The market's ability to recover so swiftly from a 19% drawdown underscores its dependence on a few powerful themes-primarily AI-while structural headwinds for 2026 are intensifying. The same forces that fueled the V-shaped recovery, like aggressive tariff threats and geopolitical uncertainty, are not resolved. They have simply been paused, creating a setup where the market's momentum may face stiffer resistance as it enters a new year.

The Sentiment Paradox: Fear & Greed in the "Neutral Zone"

The market's performance in 2025 tells a story of resilience and reward, yet the prevailing investor mood is one of cautious detachment. Despite the S&P 500 heading for a 17% gain for the year and the Nasdaq surging nearly 21%, the dominant sentiment indicator has remained stubbornly in the middle. The CNN Fear & Greed Index has lingered in the 'Neutral' zone, a clear disconnect between strong market momentum and a lack of decisive bullish or bearish conviction.

This neutral stance is a composite of mixed signals. On one side, the technical setup shows improvement. Market breadth has strengthened, with a growing share of stocks hitting new highs, and the S&P 500 has reclaimed key moving averages. This suggests a broadening of leadership beyond a few mega-cap tech stocks. Yet, underlying nervousness persists. The put/call ratio and the VIX volatility index continue to signal caution, indicating that options traders and volatility-sensitive investors are not yet fully comfortable. It's a market where the upward trajectory is clear, but the confidence to charge ahead is not.

The result is a choppy, range-bound phase. As strategists note, the recent mild declines could be a healthy "churn" as the market resets for the next leg of its bull run. This creates a classic setup for the upcoming Santa Claus Rally, a historically strong period. The technical perspective is supportive, with the index poised to test its December highs. But the neutral sentiment means any rally is likely to be met with profit-taking, preventing a decisive breakout. The market is technically primed for a move higher, but the lack of strong conviction suggests it will be a grind, not a surge.

The bottom line is a market in a holding pattern. The year's gains have been substantial, but investor sentiment has not followed suit into euphoria. This creates a fragile equilibrium. A positive Santa Claus Rally could shift the sentiment dial toward Greed, fueling a smoother start to 2026. But without that catalyst, the neutral zone may persist, keeping the market vulnerable to any new economic or geopolitical news that could tip the scales.

The 2026 Catalysts and Risks: AI, Tariffs, and a Shifting Fed

The trajectory of the bull market into 2026 hinges on a powerful tug-of-war between a transformative growth narrative and mounting structural headwinds. The bullish case is anchored in a clear, data-driven expectation: corporate earnings are poised for another strong expansion. Analysts project S&P 500 earnings will grow by 15.5% in 2026, accelerating from an estimated 13.2% in 2025. This relentless profit growth is being fueled by a paradigm shift-the AI supercycle. Firms are making record capital expenditures to capture future productivity gains, a dynamic that analysts compare to historic waves of investment in railroads and telecommunications. This technological investment cycle is the primary engine supporting the market's "all gas, no brakes" optimism, with strategists like JPMorgan arguing it will drive the U.S. economy as the world's growth engine.

Yet this powerful narrative faces a significant economic drag from the trade policy regime. The cumulative impact of President Trump's tariffs is projected to reduce long-run U.S. GDP by 0.7%. More concretely, these duties have already pushed the average effective tariff rate to 11.2%, the highest level since 1943. This represents a massive, permanent tax increase on American households and businesses, raising the average cost by $1,400 per household in 2026. The economic burden of these tariffs threatens to offset the benefits of recent tax cuts and could constrain consumer spending and business investment, creating a persistent headwind for the very earnings growth that is supporting the market.

The third major variable is the Federal Reserve's path, which is entering a period of heightened uncertainty. Market pricing currently reflects a cautious outlook, with traders betting on two rate cuts in 2026. However, this view is at odds with more dovish forecasts from leading economists. Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics argues that labor market weakness will force the Fed's hand, predicting the central bank will enact three quarter-point cuts before midyear. The divergence stems from differing views on the labor market's resilience and the political pressure to support growth ahead of elections. This uncertainty is compounded by the potential for a reshaped Fed leadership, with President Trump poised to appoint more members to the Federal Open Market Committee, including the Chair in May. The bottom line is a setup where the market's optimistic earnings growth faces a drag from tariffs and a critical policy crosscurrent from the Fed, making the path to a fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains far from guaranteed.

The Santa Claus Rally: A Historical Signal for 2026

The seasonal pattern known as the "Santa Claus Rally" is a classic market signal, and its performance this year could offer a clue about the year ahead. This historically strong seven-day stretch, defined as the last five trading days of December and the first two of January, has averaged a 1.3% gain since 1950 and is positive 78% of the time. For context, the market's typical seven-day average return is just 0.3%, with a positivity rate of 58%. The rally often grabs headlines, but its real value may lie in what it portends for the following year.

The setup for 2026 is currently mixed. The S&P 500 is negative thus far during the period, a pattern historically associated with more muted returns in the subsequent year. When the rally has been negative-placing the market on the "naughty" list-the S&P 500 has averaged just a 6.1% return for the full year that follows. In contrast, a positive rally typically precedes a strong January and a robust annual gain. This year's deficit is notable, especially after a powerful bull market that has seen the index deliver a total return north of 17% year-to-date and enter its fourth consecutive year of gains.

A successful rally would not guarantee a strong 2026, as seasonal trends are not guarantees. The market's recent performance, including a V-shaped rally off April lows, shows it can defy seasonal norms. However, its failure could signal that the market's momentum is faltering ahead of a more challenging year. The technical backdrop remains supportive, with the index having recovered above key moving averages, but the seasonal pattern adds a layer of historical context. For now, the market is on the clock. A turnaround in the coming days could align with the "nice" list and a more optimistic path, while a continued slide would reinforce the cautionary signal from history.