La caravana del Papá Noel 2025: la dinámica de la IA, las perspectivas de una rebaja de tipo de interés y puntos de entrada estratégicos

The 2025 Santa Claus Rally has unfolded as a historic convergence of macroeconomic strength, AI-driven innovation, and shifting monetary policy. With the S&P 500 hitting an all-time intraday high of 6,921.42 on December 24-the first such record on Christmas Eve since 2013-investors are recalibrating their portfolios to capitalize on a market environment uniquely positioned for growth. This rally, underpinned by a 4.3% Q3 GDP print, has set the stage for a broader reevaluation of AI megacaps like NVIDIA and Alphabet, which are now at the center of a transformative investment narrative.

AI Momentum: The Engine of 2025's Outperformance

The artificial intelligence sector has been the defining force behind the S&P 500's record-breaking year. NVIDIA, the poster child of this boom, reported Q4 2025 GAAP earnings per share of $0.89, reflecting an 82% year-over-year increase. Its dominance in high-performance computing chips, particularly the Blackwell Ultra architecture, has fueled demand from hyperscalers and cloud providers, while its strategic partnerships with firms like Micron have solidified its role in the AI supply chain. Despite a temporary dip in November 2025 due to fears of in-house silicon development by hyperscalers, NVIDIA rebounded sharply, closing at $183.69 on December 22. Analysts remain bullish, with a 12-month price target of $258.65, underscoring confidence in its ability to sustain growth.

Alphabet, meanwhile, has quietly emerged as a formidable player in the AI landscape. Its updated Gemini models and expanding Google Cloud ecosystem have driven a $100 billion revenue milestone in Q4 2025, with cloud and YouTube contributing disproportionately to its growth. At a P/E ratio of 30.28, Alphabet trades at a discount to its faster-growing tech peers (48.1x average) while still delivering a 66.7% year-to-date stock price surge. Analysts suggest Alphabet could outperform NVIDIA in 2026 if the latter's near-term demand for AI infrastructure softens due to overspending concerns.

Rate Cuts and the Dovish Outlook: A Tailwind for Growth

The Federal Reserve's projected dovish pivot in Q1 2026-bringing rates to 3.0%–3.25%-has further amplified the case for AI-driven growth stocks. This shift, coupled with AI investment expected to exceed $500 billion in 2026, creates a fertile environment for companies with high reinvestment potential. While the S&P 500 faces valuation concerns, particularly its concentration in mega-cap tech, the AI sector's earnings visibility and scalability justify its premium. For instance, NVIDIA's forward P/E of 44.40–45.24 and Alphabet's 30.28 appear reasonable given their respective growth trajectories.