U.S. 2025 non-farm payrolls initial benchmark revision at -911,000, expected -700,000, previous -598,000.

U.S. 2025 non-farm payrolls initial benchmark revision at -911,000, expected -700,000, previous -598,000.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release its preliminary non-farm payrolls benchmark revision on September 9, 2025, which is expected to show a significant downward adjustment. Economists predict a revision of -911,000 jobs for the 12 months through March 2025, compared to the previously reported -598,000 jobs .

The revision is expected to be higher than the initial estimate of -700,000 jobs, indicating that the labor market was already struggling before President Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports and the White House's immigration crackdown . The use of artificial intelligence tools and automation by businesses has also been cited as a factor curbing demand for workers.

Economists attribute the revisions to the "birth-and-death" model, which estimates job gains or losses due to companies opening or closing. The average monthly contribution of this factor has slipped in the 12 months ending March 2025, nearly aligning with its pre-pandemic contribution . However, separate data on business openings shows the rate of net new firm creation has fallen below its pre-pandemic pace, suggesting the birth-death factor may still be overestimating job growth .

The Federal Reserve is expected to resume cutting interest rates next Wednesday, following a pause in January due to uncertainty over the economic impact of tariffs. The monthly employment report, based on data from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, will be updated with fresh information received from businesses .

The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) has urged policymakers and business leaders to defend the integrity of the U.S. statistical system and ensure it remains the global gold standard . The BLS has been facing criticism and political pressure, with President Trump nominating E.J. Antoni, who has questioned the BLS's methodology .

References:
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/job-growth-revision/2025/09/09/id/1225624/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-expect-major-downward-jobs-203851630.html