Is $1.7 a Make-or-Break Level for Toncoin?

The price of Toncoin (TON) has long been a focal point for traders and investors, with the $1.7 level emerging as a critical psychological and technical threshold in late 2025. As TON trades near $1.60, the question of whether this level represents a turning point or a catalyst for further decline hinges on a nuanced interplay of technical indicators, liquidity dynamics, and market sentiment. This analysis delves into the evidence to determine whether $1.7 is indeed a make-or-break moment for TON.

Technical Analysis: A Bearish Trend with Oversold Rebound Potential

Toncoin's price action in late 2025 has been characterized by a descending channel pattern on the 1-day chart, with key resistance levels at $1.695, $2.185, and $2.871, and support at $1.440. The 50-day moving average (MA) remains above the current price, reinforcing a bearish trend, while the RSI hovers in oversold territory at 34.366, suggesting a potential short-term rebound. However, the ADX at 57.999 underscores a strong downward trend, and the RVI of 50.95 highlights heightened volatility, which could amplify price swings in either direction.

On the 1-hour chart, a short-term supply zone exists between $1.56 and $1.58, with limited buying strength despite the RSI's oversold reading. The price has repeatedly failed to break through the $1.6–$1.7 supply zone, indicating that sellers remain dominant. While the A/D line suggests buyers have a slight short-term edge, the RSI remains below neutral (50), and the Stochastic RSI is declining, reinforcing bearish momentum. A clean breakout above $1.7 is necessary for a bullish scenario, but this level is also associated with a liquidity pocket on CoinGlass and a dense cluster of short liquidations, which could drag prices back down.

Sentiment and Liquidity Dynamics: A Volatile Crossroads

The $1.7 level has historically been a flashpoint for volatility. On November 18, 2025, TON hit $1.70, its lowest level since September 2023, amid a broader market decline. At this level, short liquidation events occurred, signaling a potential reversal in bearish sentiment as the price stabilized afterward. However, liquidity strength around $1.7 remains mixed. While TON rebounded from this level in late November, it struggled to break above key resistances such as $2.79 (200D EMA) or $1.75 (23.6% Fib) in the following weeks, indicating limited buying interest amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Derivatives data further complicates the picture. Open interest for TON reached $127.6 billion in late 2025, reflecting substantial speculative activity. However, trading volume and open interest remain below pre-selloff levels, suggesting a lack of conviction among traders. A $1.7 billion liquidation sweep across crypto markets in late 2025-primarily affecting long positions-highlights the fragility of leveraged positions. For TON, short liquidation risks are amplified by the concentration of supply in whale wallets (over 68%), which can exacerbate volatility during sharp price movements.

The $1.7 Level: A Make-or-Break Scenario?

The $1.7 level is pivotal for TON due to its dual role as both a psychological support and a liquidity hotspot. A successful breakout above this level could trigger a rally toward $2.888, as outlined in bullish 2025 price targets. However, the presence of short liquidations and a liquidity pocket at this level increases the likelihood of a bearish reversal, particularly if broader market conditions deteriorate.

Conversely, a breakdown below $1.7 could accelerate the downtrend, with the next key support at $1.60 and a bear case projecting a drop to $1.092. The Fear & Greed Index for TON is currently at 11, reflecting extreme fear, which could lead to a rebound if buyers step in. Yet, the token's performance remains closely tied to Bitcoin and Ethereum, meaning a downturn in these major assets could drag TON lower.

Investment Outlook: Cautious Optimism Amid High Volatility

For investors, the $1.7 level represents a high-stakes inflection point. While technical indicators like the oversold RSI and A/D line hint at a potential rebound, the bearish trend-evidenced by the 50-day MA and ADX-suggests caution. Liquidity dynamics further complicate the outlook, with short liquidation risks and whale-driven volatility posing significant challenges.

A bullish scenario would require a sustained breakout above $1.7, supported by increased risk appetite and macroeconomic stability. Conversely, a breakdown below $1.60 could reignite selling pressure, particularly if the U.S. Federal Reserve adopts a hawkish stance or geopolitical tensions disrupt risk assets. Investors should closely monitor order book depth on platforms like CoinGlass, as well as developments in TON's ecosystem, such as partnerships with global payment platforms like OpenPayd.

In conclusion, the $1.7 level is a make-or-break moment for TON, but its outcome will depend on a delicate balance of technical resilience, liquidity strength, and broader market sentiment. For now, the bearish bias persists, but the potential for a short-term rebound remains, making this level a critical watchpoint for both bulls and bears.