Is $0.20 the Next Critical Support for Pi Network?

The Pi Network (PI) has long been a subject of speculation, with its price action and tokenomics shaping a complex narrative for investors. As of November 2025, PI trades at $0.2328, having oscillated between $0.2220 and $0.2790 over the past 30 days according to CoinGecko. The $0.20 level, however, has emerged as a focal point for short-term bearish risks, given its structural significance and the looming liquidity pressures from token unlocks. This analysis evaluates whether $0.20 can hold as a critical support, while dissecting the distribution and liquidity risks that could accelerate a downward trend.

The $0.20 Support: A Structural Weakness or a Psychological Floor?

Historically, $0.20 has functioned as a key support level for PI, aligning with the value area low of its recent trading range according to MEXC. A breakdown below this level could trigger a liquidity sweep toward $0.15–$0.18, as weak bullish volume at $0.22 suggests insufficient buying pressure to defend the range according to MEXC. Technical indicators further complicate the outlook: the RSI and CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) exhibit bearish divergences, signaling waning momentum for buyers according to InvestX.

A bearish engulfing candle formed during a failed breakout attempt above $0.25, confirming distribution within the $0.20–$0.30 range according to Crypto News. This pattern implies that sellers are accumulating liquidity below $0.20, increasing the likelihood of a sharp correction if the price retests this level. Notably, PI briefly dipped to $0.16 in mid-October 2025, underscoring the fragility of the $0.20 support amid heightened volatility according to Bitget.

Liquidity Risks: Token Unlocks and Market Absorption Challenges

The most immediate threat to PI's price stability stems from its 2025 token unlock schedule. By December 2025, 190 million tokens will enter circulation, adding to the 400 million already released in the preceding four months according to Bitget. This surge in supply could overwhelm the market's absorption capacity, particularly if broader crypto conditions remain bearish. Historical precedents suggest that large-scale unlocks often lead to price collapses, as seen in PI's drop from a $3 peak in early 2025 to its current range according to Bitget.

On-chain data reveals additional vulnerabilities. Weak bullish volume at the point of control ($0.22) indicates that buyers are struggling to defend key levels, while exchange outflows-typically a sign of accumulation-have stalled according to Coinpedia. This suggests that the market is not adequately prepared for the influx of tokens, raising the risk of a liquidity-driven selloff.

Technical and Market Dynamics: A Bearish Setup

PI's price action has formed a falling wedge pattern on the 30-minute chart, with a descending trendline breakout at $0.6411 (though this level is far above current prices) according to TradingView. However, the broader context remains bearish: the token is trading below its 24-hour high of $0.2921 and has declined 7.18% over the past month according to CoinCodex. A clean breakout above $0.28 could theoretically target $0.36–$0.46, but this scenario hinges on volume and sentiment alignment, which are currently absent according to InvestX.

The 0.618 Fibonacci level, a critical psychological barrier, has also failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish bias according to Crypto News. Without a sustained rally above $0.30, PI is likely to remain trapped in a distributive range, with $0.20 as the next line of defense.

Implications for Investors

For short-term traders, the $0.20 level represents a high-risk threshold. A breakdown could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders and margin calls, exacerbating the downward spiral. Long-term investors, meanwhile, must weigh the token's fundamentals against its speculative risks. While optimistic projections envision PI reaching $1–$2.50 by 2028 according to MEXC, these outcomes depend on ecosystem adoption and real-world utility-factors that remain unproven.

The December 2025 token unlock is a critical inflection point. If the market absorbs the increased supply without triggering a sharp sell-off, PI could stabilize near $0.20 and attempt a recovery. However, a failure to do so would likely extend the bearish trend, with $0.15–$0.18 as the next potential targets according to Bitget.

Conclusion

The $0.20 support level for Pi Network is both a technical and psychological battleground. While its structural significance offers a potential floor for short-term buyers, the combination of weak bullish volume, bearish technical indicators, and impending token unlocks creates a high-risk environment. Investors should treat this level with caution, recognizing that a breakdown could accelerate a deeper correction. In a bearish market setup, liquidity and distribution risks remain the dominant forces shaping PI's near-term trajectory.