XRP Scam Warning vs. ETF Inflows: A Flow Battle for Price

A fresh wave of scams is actively draining user funds from XRP wallets, creating a direct flow of capital out of the ecosystem. Scammers are using fake NFT "passes" and imitation Xaman domains to trick holders into accepting unsolicited offers, with the goal of stealing wallet secrets or signing fraudulent transactions. The XRP Ledger developer and Xaman founder, Wietse Wind, issued a stark warning on February 28, urging users to cancel such offers and never engage with suspicious NFTs or links.

These tactics exploit common user behaviors, relying on social engineering rather than technical flaws. The scams create friction and fear, as users must constantly verify wallet addresses and scrutinize every offer. This can suppress on-chain activity, as cautious holders freeze funds or avoid transactions altogether. The scale of the threat is real, with a PeckShield report noting a 64% rise in crypto scams to $1.37 billion lost in 2025.

Yet, when measured against institutional flows, the individual thefts are dwarfed. While these scams represent a tangible risk to user sentiment and a liquidity drain, they are a secondary concern compared to the massive, directed capital moving through ETFs. The primary price mover remains the institutional inflow, making these scams a sentiment risk rather than a dominant market force.

The ETF Engine: A Floor of $1.3B in Inflows

The most powerful force in XRP's current price action is a steady, institutional buying flow. U.S. spot XRP ETFs have pulled in over $1.3 billion in cumulative inflows since their November 2025 launch. This isn't a one-time event; the funds went roughly 43 consecutive trading days without a single outflow early on, establishing a powerful, sustained bid that simply didn't exist in prior Februarys.

That institutional demand is the primary counterweight to the broader market selloff and seasonal weakness. Even as the XRP price dipped in the first weeks of February 2026, these ETFs continued accumulating through the volatility. This steady bid creates a new price floor, a structural support that prior Februarys never had. It's the key factor suggesting the historical "curse" of monthly losses could finally break.

Yet, the flow is not static. Evidence shows ETF demand is slowing in early 2026, and the market has been dragged down by a $2.2 billion liquidation event. The $1.3 billion inflow total is a cumulative floor, but its daily momentum is the real battleground.

Price Action & Catalysts: The Battle for $1.40

XRP is trading around $1.41, having crashed over 30% in February. The price found immediate support near $1.40 after a recent bounce, but the technical structure is fragile. The critical level to watch is the $1.60 support zone. A decisive break below that could trigger a cascade of leveraged liquidations, accelerating the selling pressure that already drove the price to a low of $1.11 earlier in the month.

The primary near-term catalyst is the March 1 deadline for the Clarity Act. This legislative development could provide crucial regulatory clarity for XRP, potentially shifting market sentiment from uncertainty to a more positive outlook. Analysts expect this potential catalyst to be the main driver for price action heading into March, offering a possible counterweight to the technical breakdown.

For now, the battle is between this looming regulatory catalyst and the immediate technical risk. The ETF inflow floor of over $1.3 billion provides a structural bid, but it must overcome the momentum of a broken support level and the broader market's macro-driven selloff. The next major move hinges on whether the Clarity Act news can rally the price back above $1.60, or if the technical weakness will dominate.