Spot palladium falls nearly 3% to $1,238.92/oz

Palladium prices fell nearly 3% on July 8, 2026, settling at $1,238.92 per ounce, marking a reversal from recent gains amid shifting market dynamics. The decline followed a brief rebound earlier in the week, when the metal traded near $1,280 per ounce as investors digested softer-than-expected U.S. jobs data and reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes. However, renewed geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices capped further upside, contributing to the pullback.

Over the past month, palladium has gained 5.18%, and is up 14.34% compared to last year. Despite the recent decline, the metal remains well above its late-September 2025 level of around $1,230 per ounce. Analysts expect palladium to trade at $1,342.00 per ounce by the end of the quarter and $1,545.90 in 12 months, according to global macroeconomic models.

On the supply side, Russia’s Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest palladium producer, anticipates a 2% decline in output this year due to lower ore grades. Meanwhile, South African platinum group metal (PGM) mines continue to face operational disruptions adding to supply-side pressures. Demand remains under pressure as China’s electric vehicle exports surged 49% year-on-year, accelerating the shift away from palladium used in automotive catalytic converters.

The broader PGM market is expected to post a small surplus, with palladium’s role in the automotive sector facing long-term challenges due to EVs. Market participants remain closely watching the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory and global geopolitical developments for further directional cues.