Ondas Raises 2026 Revenue View: Can It Deliver the Required H2 Ramp?

Ondas Inc. ONDS raised its 2026 revenue outlook following a strong second-quarter performance and a massive backlog. However, the updated guidance places considerable emphasis on execution during the second half of the year.

The company raised its full-year revenue outlook to $525-$550 million from the previous target of at least $525 million, representing more than 10 times the reported figure for 2025. At the midpoint, the outlook implies more than 30% year-over-year organic growth on a pro forma basis.

For the third quarter, revenues are expected at $140-$155 million, implying approximately 76% sequential growth at the midpoint and more than 30% organic growth year over year on a pro forma basis.

Revenues in the second quarter surged more than 13 times year over year to $83.8 million and increased 67% sequentially. Pro forma organic revenues increased 85% year over year.

Ondas Holdings Inc. Revenue (Quarterly)

Ondas Holdings Inc. revenue-quarterly | Ondas Holdings Inc. Quote

Visibility into the second half ramp appears solid. Reported backlog reached approximately $613 million as of June 30, with pro forma backlog of $757 million including DZYNE and Cyberhawk acquisitions. On the last earnings call, management noted that Ondas captured $175 million in new orders during the second quarter and another $105 million through the quarter to date.

Precision Strike represents an important near-term revenue catalyst. Mistral is preparing to deliver against more than $240 million of aggregated orders associated with the U.S. Army's $982 million Lethal Unmanned Systems IDIQ program. Commercial deliveries are expected to ramp in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 and continue into 2027.

Meanwhile, IonStrike (acquired through DZYNE) is expected to begin receiving commercial-volume orders and initial deliveries during the second half of 2026. INDO Earth is slated to start deliveries in the fourth quarter against a combat engineering vehicles program with approximately $140 million of potential value.
Nonetheless, the magnitude of the expected ramp introduces execution risk. Ondas is accelerating production, supply-chain, deployment and field-support capacity to support higher volumes, while management has acknowledged ongoing supply-chain challenges.

Extensive M&A also amplifies execution risks. Multiple acquisitions in such a short period can create integration overload and execution risks, since achieving targets depends on timely integration and conversion of backlog into revenues. Increasing competition in the already crowded drone space is another headwind.

Therefore, the pace of order conversion and production scaling will determine whether ONDS can deliver the steep second half ramp embedded in its outlook.

How Do Ondas’ Competitors Stack Up on Growth?

Red Cat Holdings RCAT is one of Ondas’ closest competitors. Management reaffirmed its $150-$180 million full-year revenue target at the second-quarter 2026 earnings call. Second-quarter revenues surged 527% year over year to $20.2 million. First-half 2026 revenues reached roughly $36 million compared with just $4.8 million a year earlier.

Red Cat is witnessing solid demand from defense and government clients and expanding program wins. The company is also sharpening its ability to rapidly scale production to meet mission-critical requirements. Red Cat’s manufacturing footprint has increased fivefold since 2024 to roughly 260,000 square feet, with another 12,000 square feet added for APM operations.

AeroVironment AVAV recently reported first-quarter fiscal 2027 results. Quarterly revenues of $480.5 million were up 6% year over year. The Autonomous Systems segment delivered 21% year-over-year revenue growth, with Uncrewed Aircraft Systems revenues up 71%, driven by strong domestic and international demand for P550, JUMP 20-X and Puma.

AeroVironment’s Precision Strike and Defense Systems revenues were up 8% year over year, supported by loitering munitions, one-way attack systems and Titan counter-UAS RF products. Looking ahead, AeroVironment reaffirmed fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $2.125-$2.225 billion, implying about 10% growth at the midpoint. Strong backlog, key program wins and higher manufacturing capacity should support stronger revenues in the second half.

ONDS’ Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

ONDS’ shares have lost 25.8% in the past month against the Wireless-National industry’s growth of 1.5%

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ONDS is trading at a 12-month forward price/sales ratio of 4.65X, considerably lower than the industry’s multiple of 8.00X.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ONDS’ earnings for the current year has been revised downward over the past 60 days.

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ONDS currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

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