Monster: We expect increase in cost of aluminum through 2026

Aluminum prices have continued to rise in 2026, driven by persistent supply constraints and geopolitical tensions. As of August 6, 2026, aluminum futures in the UK reached $3,269.45 per tonne, up 0.61% from the previous day and 25.32% higher compared to the same period last year. This increase reflects ongoing challenges in global production, particularly outside China, where output fell 6.7% year-on-year in July due to reduced operating rates at Middle Eastern smelters.

China’s 45 million-ton production cap is also expected to become more restrictive, compounding global supply pressures. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions have led to a significant drawdown of exchange inventories, with LME stocks reaching lowest level this century. Alcoa Corp. recently cut its production forecast due to operational issues at an Australian refinery, further tightening supply.

Despite these challenges, some relief may come from planned capacity restarts, including the Slovalco smelter in Slovakia and the Missouri smelter in the U.S., both expected to resume operations by year-end. Additionally, Emirates Global Aluminium has been restoring production at Al Taweelah facility.

Looking ahead, analysts project continued upward pressure on aluminum prices. Trading Economics forecasts price of $3,231.49 per tonne by the end of the quarter and $3,421.47 per tonne in 12 months. The structural deficit in the aluminum market, driven by constrained supply and rising demand, supports a long-term bullish outlook.