Microsoft Shares Underperform Despite Strong Fundamentals, $750 Target Possible by 2030

Microsoft shares have risen 3.14% YTD despite Azure crossing $100bn in revenue, commercial ROBs surging 84% to $678bn, and 30mln paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats. The stock is up 0.84% over the last month but has gone nowhere for a year due to market concerns about capital expenditures and free cash flow. The consensus target is $572.92, with our internal model calling for $596.46 one year out, implying 20.34% upside. Reaching $750 by 2030 would require a 51.3% gain, with forward EPS of $19.96 implying a forward multiple of 37.9x.