72% of Undersea Cables Would Need to Fail to Significantly Affect the Bitcoin Network

A recent study by the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance has revealed that the Bitcoin network is highly resilient to random disruptions of global submarine cable infrastructure. According to the analysis, 72–92% of undersea cables would need to fail simultaneously to impact more than 10% of Bitcoin nodes. The findings underscore the robustness of the peer-to-peer architecture in handling large-scale, random failures.

The research, which examined 11 years of P2P network data alongside 68 verified submarine cable outages, found that the vast majority of historical cable failures had minimal impact on the network. Specifically, 87% of events affected less than 5% of nodes. This resilience is attributed to the decentralized and distributed nature of the Bitcoin network.

Tor routing significantly enhances network robustness by obscuring node locations. Around 64% of nodes use Tor, leveraging relay infrastructure in well-connected European countries. This adds a critical layer of protection against interference from infrastructure disruptions.

Why Did This Happen?

The study highlights an important asymmetry between random and targeted disruptions. While random failures require the simultaneous failure of a large portion of cables to cause significant impact, targeted attacks on key infrastructure can achieve similar damage with far less effort. For example, attacks on critical chokepoints—such as the Hormuz Strait cables—could disrupt 10% of nodes with only 5–20% of total cable failures.

Additionally, the research points to the vulnerability of hosting providers. Removing just 5% of routing capacity from the top five providers—Hetzner, OVH, Comcast, Amazon, and Google Cloud—could cause similar network disruptions. This underscores the importance of infrastructure diversification in maintaining network resilience.

How Did Markets React?

Historically, there has been a near-zero correlation between submarine cable outages and Bitcoin prices. Despite the scale of some outages, the impact on the Bitcoin network has been minimal. This suggests that the market has largely accounted for such risks in its pricing mechanisms, with limited direct effect from infrastructure failures.

Investors and operators should remain aware of the network's asymmetric vulnerability. While random outages pose little threat, targeted attacks on key infrastructure represent a credible risk. The study recommends increased diversification of hosting services and greater use of anonymizing tools like Tor to mitigate potential disruptions.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

The study's findings have important implications for the ongoing development of the Bitcoin network. Analysts are now closely monitoring how the network adapts to evolving threats and infrastructure changes. The use of Tor and the distribution of node locations are considered key factors in maintaining resilience against targeted attacks.

Moreover, the importance of hosting providers in the network's connectivity is gaining attention. Any significant changes in provider policies or infrastructure could have a direct impact on node availability and network performance.

The study also emphasizes the role of global submarine cable topology in shaping the network's resilience. Unlike traditional infrastructure models, the Bitcoin network's robustness is more dependent on the distribution of cables and routing paths than on the location of mining activity. This suggests that future infrastructure planning should focus on redundancy and geographic diversity.

In summary, the study confirms that the Bitcoin network is highly resilient to random disruptions but remains vulnerable to targeted attacks. The findings highlight the importance of proactive risk management and the need for continuous monitoring of key infrastructure components according to the research.