Can oxy surpass exxon in market cap in 10 years

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) surpassing Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) in market capitalization within the next 10 years is a challenging prospect, but not entirely impossible. Here's an analysis to support this conclusion:

1. Current Market Position: As of August 16, 2024, OXY has a market capitalization of $52.38 billion, while XOM stands at $526.23 billion. This indicates a significant gap between the two companies in terms of market value.

2. Growth Rates: OXY is forecasted to grow its earnings per share (EPS) by 10% per annum over the next five years, with a revenue growth rate of 4.6% per annum. Exxon Mobil, on the other hand, is expected to grow its EPS by 5.0% per annum over the same period, with revenue growth of 15% by 2050.
3. Strategic Plans: Exxon Mobil's strategic plans to reduce costs, improve business mix, and invest in high-return, low-cost-of-supply projects are likely to contribute to its continued growth. Occidental Petroleum's growth is expected to be driven by increased oil and gas production, cost optimization, and strategic acquisitions.
4. Market Conditions: The energy sector is expected to grow, with developing nations adding five times what is reduced by developed countries by 2050. This presents opportunities for both companies, but Exxon Mobil's larger market capitalization and diversified operations may give it an advantage in capitalizing on these opportunities.
5. Time Frame: While OXY's growth rate is higher than Exxon Mobil's, the time frame for surpassing the larger company's market capitalization is significant. The market capitalizations of the two companies are currently more than an order of magnitude apart, and closing this gap in a decade requires a very high rate of growth for OXY.
6. Conclusion: Given the current market positions, growth rates, and strategic plans of the two companies, it is unlikely that OXY will surpass Exxon Mobil in market capitalization within the next 10 years. However, it is important to note that market dynamics can change, and unexpected events could alter the trajectory of either company's growth.