Is YUMC's Q1 2025 earnings forecast optimistic?

**YUMC's Q1 2025 earnings forecast is not optimistic.** Here's the analysis to support this conclusion:

1. **Zacks Research's Estimate Cut**: Zacks Research, a reputable financial research firm, has cut its Q1 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Yum China Holdings. This downward revision suggests a more pessimistic outlook on the company's earnings for the period.
2. **Analyst H. Ray's Forecast**: H. Ray, a Zacks Research analyst, forecasts that Yum China will post earnings of $0.78 per share. This is below the Wall Street analysts' forecast of $0.30 per share, indicating a more conservative expectation.
3. **Revenue Expectations**: While revenue expectations for Q1 2025 are $3.14 billion, which is a substantial figure, it is important to consider the context of this figure. The 7% year-over-year increase in revenue anticipated does not necessarily translate to optimism when compared to other metrics, such as EPS.
4. **Comparative Analysis**: Yum China's Q1 2025 earnings forecast does not match the positive sentiment expressed in other reports, such as the 20% year-over-year increase in EPS forecasted by Wall Street analysts for Q4 2024. This discrepancy suggests that the Q1 2025 forecast may not be optimistic.
5. **Market Reaction and Full-Year Results**: Following the release of full-year results, Yum China's shares rose, but this was attributed to the company's revenue being in line with analyst forecasts, rather than exceeding them. This could imply a more cautious outlook from the market.

In conclusion, the Q1 2025 earnings forecast for Yum China Holdings is not optimistic, considering the revisions by Zacks Research, the lower EPS forecast compared to Wall Street analysts, and the context of the revenue expectations.