The current prediction for XAUUSD (Gold) is bullish, with a potential for a bearish correction in the near term.
- Bullish Trend Analysis:
- Historical data shows an ascending parallel channel with 6 touches, indicating a strong bullish trend.
- Recent analysis suggests a potential historical bull market, with predictions of at least tripling of gold's price in the coming years.
- The XAU/USD pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern, suggesting a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming days.
- Bearish Considerations:
- Gold has experienced a significant pullback, almost to the middle of the parallel channel, which could indicate a potential correction.
- The price is trading between weighted levels of 2421 and 2380, with testing of these levels expected before a break.
- The structure formed on the chart suggests a potential fall ahead, with a possible target at $2451.
- Future Outlook:
- The overall bullish trend remains unchanged, with technical indicators showing limited upward strength but still positive.
- The US Dollar's weakness due to inflation concerns and geopolitical risks act as a tailwind for XAU/USD.
- The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and the market's reaction to US CPI and PPI data could influence gold's future movement.
- Market Sentiment and Positioning:
- Buyers are timidly adding long positions, and the pair holds above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
- The market is testing the support and liquidity zone within the counter-trend correction, which could lead to a bullish leverage for gold.
- The S&P PMI and other economic data will be crucial in determining gold's future trajectory.
In conclusion, while gold's XAUUSD current trend is bullish, traders should be prepared for a potential bearish correction in the near term. The market's reaction to upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments will be key in shaping gold's future direction.
7/26/2024 10:58am
