Will WY's Q1 2025 earnings beat forecasts?

Weyerhaeuser's Q1 2025 earnings are likely to beat forecasts, considering the company's historical performance and recent outlook indicators. Here's a detailed analysis to support this conclusion:

1. Consistent Performance in Natural Climate Solutions: Weyerhaeuser's Natural Climate Solutions business has been a significant contributor to the company's earnings. In the fourth quarter of 2024, this business segment exceeded expectations, with the company reporting net sales of $1.7 billion and an EPS of $0.11, which was $0.04 more than anticipated. This strong performance suggests that the company's core business units are robust and capable of delivering earnings that surpass forecasts.

2. Positive Outlook for Q1 2025: Weyerhaeuser has provided an optimistic outlook for the first quarter of 2025, anticipating earnings before special items and Adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $20 million higher than the fourth quarter of 2024. This indicates that the company is expecting an improvement in earnings, which could potentially lead to earnings that beat forecasts.
3. Historical Performance: Weyerhaeuser has a track record of delivering earnings that are in line with or exceed expectations. For instance, the company's EPS for Q1 2025 is estimated at $0.13, which is a figure that the company has consistently aimed to achieve. Given the company's past performance and the positive outlook, it is reasonable to assume that Weyerhaeuser's Q1 2025 earnings will likely beat forecasts.
4. Market Conditions: The broader market conditions for forest products and timber stocks have been stable, with Weyerhaeuser's stock performance outperforming the iShares Global Timber & Forestry ETF over certain periods. This suggests that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on market demand, which could lead to stronger-than-expected earnings.

In conclusion, considering Weyerhaeuser's strong historical performance, positive outlook for Q1 2025, and favorable market conditions, it is likely that the company's earnings for the quarter will beat forecasts.