Wouldn't large purchases in precious metals suggest that the stock market is inflated? Should I sell my VTI at $315 and then re-but when it goes down?

The large purchases of precious metals like gold and silver by governments and institutions can indeed be seen as a sign of market unease and potential stock market corrections. However, whether this translates to selling your Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) at $315 and waiting for a dip to re-enter depends on your investment strategy, risk tolerance, and the current market conditions. Here are some points to consider:

1. **Correlation vs. Causation**: While large precious metal purchases might indicate market jitters, they don't necessarily mean that the stock market is inherently flawed or that a correction is imminent. The relationship between precious metals and stock markets is complex and can be influenced by various economic factors.
2. **Historical Performance**: VTI has a history of resilience and has recovered from past market downturns. The ETF's ability to bounce back from declines suggests that it might not be prudent to sell based solely on a spike in precious metal prices.
3. **Market Sentiment**: It's important to consider the current market sentiment and economic indicators. If the economic outlook remains positive and the market is experiencing a normal correction rather than a structural shift, holding VTI could be beneficial for long-term investors.
4. **Diversification**: VTI provides diversified exposure to the entire U.S. stock market, which can help mitigate the impact of sector-specific downturns. This diversification is a key advantage in volatile markets.
5. **Long-Term Perspective**: Taking a long-term view, investing in VTI can potentially offer attractive returns, given its historical average annual return since inception. Selling based on short-term market fluctuations might not be the most prudent strategy for long-term investors.
6. **Risk Management**: If you're concerned about market volatility, you might consider risk management techniques such as rebalancing your portfolio, setting stop-loss orders, or using options strategies to hedge against potential declines.

In conclusion, while the purchase of precious metals by governments can be a signal of market unease, it's crucial to make investment decisions based on a comprehensive analysis of the current market conditions, your investment goals, and your risk tolerance. If you're confident in the long-term prospects of the U.S. stock market and are looking for a diversified, low-cost exposure to the entire market, holding VTI might still be a suitable strategy. However, if you're risk-averse and believe that a market correction is imminent, selling and waiting for a lower entry point could be an option. It's important to consult with a financial advisor to align these decisions with your individual financial situation and goals.