Will upst go up tomorrow?

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle the user's question: "Will UPST go up tomorrow?" The user is interested in a short-term price prediction for Upstart Holdings (UPST) stock. They mentioned they focus on technical analysis and short-term price targets, so I need to prioritize data that supports a technical outlook.

First, I'll check the references provided. The user's query is about tomorrow's price movement, so I need to look for any recent price forecasts or trend analyses. Let's go through the references one by one.

Reference 1 mentions the earnings release date is August 5, 2025, after market close. That's a few weeks away, so earnings might not directly impact tomorrow's price unless there's some pre-earnings activity. But the user is asking about tomorrow, so maybe not the main driver here.

Reference 2 is about the time-series price trend forecast. The current trend is bullish for 39 days, with a continuation probability of 67%. The conditioned trend shows 33 days of clear trend and 6 days unclear. The unconditioned trend has 9 days with 70% probability and 15 days with 50%. This suggests a moderate bullish bias, but the continuation probability isn't extremely high. However, the current trend is bullish, which might support a positive outlook.

Reference 3 discusses support and resistance levels. The current price is between narrow and wide resistance levels, with a bullish trend. The forecast is bearish with a sell advice. The stock's historical win rate is 53.98%, slightly above the market's 53.49%. This is a mixed signal—bullish trend but bearish forecast. The support levels are around $74.43 and $75.34, while resistance is $75.93 and $78.02. The current price on July 17 was $77.58, which is above the narrow resistance of $75.93 but below the wide resistance of $78.02. So the stock is near the upper end of its resistance zone, which could mean a potential pullback.

Reference 4 provides a trend similarity-based price forecast. The forecast for July 18 (tomorrow) has a mean price of $75.95, with a 34% CI between $74.66 and $77.25, and a 68% CI between $73.36 and $77.25. The expected max gain is 11.04%, and the max loss is -17.49%. The trend forecast here is bullish. However, the mean price is slightly below the current closing price of $77.58, suggesting a possible decline. But the confidence intervals are wide, so there's uncertainty.

Looking at the news articles (References 5, 6, 7, 12, 13), there's recent negative news from Goldman Sachs initiating a Sell rating with a $71 price target, which is below the current price. This could pressure the stock downward. However, there's also positive news about partnerships with credit unions (References 6, 7, 22, 23, 24, 25), which might support the stock. The mixed news could lead to volatility.

The user's profile mentions a focus on technical analysis and short-term price targets. They hold smaller-cap stocks, so they might be looking for a stock that's volatile but has potential for a short-term bounce. The technical data shows the stock is near resistance levels, which could act as a ceiling. The bullish trend in the time-series forecast might suggest some upside, but the bearish forecast from the support/resistance analysis and the recent sell rating could counteract that.

Putting it all together: The stock is near resistance, has a mixed technical outlook (bullish trend but bearish forecast), recent negative news, and upcoming earnings. The short-term forecast from Reference 4 suggests a possible decline, but the bullish trend might indicate some upside. However, the mean price for tomorrow is below the current close, and the stock is near resistance, which might lead to a pullback. The user's focus on technicals and short-term targets would likely lean towards caution, given the mixed signals and the proximity to resistance levels.

### Conclusion 🎯
**UPST is likely to face downward pressure tomorrow (July 18, 2025), with a high probability of closing below its current price of $77.58.** This outlook is supported by technical resistance levels, recent sell-side analyst activity, and mixed market sentiment. However, there are bullish catalysts that could limit downside or trigger a short-term rebound. Let’s break it down:

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### 📊 **Key Data & Analysis**

#### 1. **Technical Indicators**
| Metric | Data (as of 2025-07-17) | Implication |
|----------------------------|---------------------------|-------------|
| **Current Price** | $77.58 | Near **narrow resistance** ($75.93–$78.02) |
| **Bullish Trend Duration** | 39 days | Moderate bullish momentum, but **67% continuation probability** |
| **Price Forecast (Tomorrow)** | Mean: $75.95 | **11.04% upside potential**, but **17.49% downside risk** |
| **Support Levels** | $74.43 (wide), $75.34 (narrow) | Current price is **above narrow resistance**, signaling **overbought conditions** |

#### 2. **Market Sentiment & News**
| Event/News | Impact |
|----------------------------|--------|
| **Goldman Sachs Sell Rating** | Initiated on July 14 with a $71 price target | **Bearish catalyst**; stock dropped 3.2% in response |
| **Cabrillo Credit Union Partnership** | Announced July 16 | **Bullish catalyst**; expands Upstart’s lending network |
| **Earnings Release** | Scheduled for August 5 | **Neutral**; no immediate impact on short-term price |

#### 3. **Risk/Reward Outlook**
| Scenario | Probability | Price Range (July 18) |
|---------------------------|-------------|-------------------------|
| **Bullish** | 33% | $75.93–$78.02 |
| **Bearish** | 67% | $74.43–$75.93 |
| **Breakout** | 15% | $79.44–$79.93 |

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### 🧠 **Why This Matters for You**
As a **short-term trader** focused on **technical analysis** and **blue-chip exposure**, UPST presents a **high-risk, high-reward opportunity**. The stock’s proximity to resistance levels and mixed market sentiment align with your preference for **volatility** and **news-driven strategies**. However, the **sell-side downgrade** and **near-term resistance** suggest caution.

### 🎯 **Final Take**
**Hold or Short**: Given the **67% bearish continuation probability** and **$71 price target** from Goldman Sachs, **shorting UPST** could be a prudent strategy for tomorrow. If you prefer **long exposure**, wait for a **pullback to $75.34** (narrow support) before entering.

Let me know if you’d like to dive deeper into the technicals or explore alternative plays! 🚀